 Illinois has lost an estimated 150,000 students over the past 15 years.
It’s a trend that has played out under the tenures of at least Illinois’ three
preceding governors, and it may be continuing under Gov. Bruce Rauner. The
exodus is likely partly attributable to tuition at Illinois’ public colleges and
universities having skyrocketed almost 100 percent over the last decade, while
administrator and pension costs have eaten up bigger chunks of higher-education
tax dollars, making a college degree unaffordable for many students and their
families.
But Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel politicized Illinois’ loss of students to other
states by placing the blame squarely on Rauner.
Emanuel charged Rauner with driving students out of Illinois in a March 7
statement reported by the Chicago Sun-Times: “Kids from the state of Illinois
are leaving the state to go to college when we used to be a net gain … More
people are leaving our state … and this is all under [Rauner’s] tenure.”
But Illinois hasn’t been gaining students, on net, since at least the start of
the 21st century. So students were definitely leaving under former Govs. Pat
Quinn, Rod Blagojevich and George Ryan; but, while they may still be leaving
under Rauner, official student migration numbers aren’t yet available.
It’s unclear where Emanuel’s data come from, but the National Center for
Education Statistics, or NCES, data show a net loss of an estimated 150,000
students from 2000 through 2014, with an average yearly net loss of about 10,000
students. By 2012, during Quinn’s tenure, Illinois’ student net loss creeped up
to more than 16,000 annually.
illinois outmigration
Student migration data is not yet available for the Rauner years, so it’s
impossible to say for sure how student inflow and outflow has changed.
However, Illinois’ higher-education enrollment data, which is available through
fall 2016, may provide some hint at whether Illinois is now losing more students
to other states. This isn’t an ideal measure, because enrollment doesn’t
necessarily correlate with net student gains or losses from other states. That’s
because it could be reflecting other trends, such as overall increases or
declines in college attendance. Nevertheless, over the past decade, enrollment
at Illinois’ public and private universities and institutions began declining in
2011, according to data from the Illinois Board of Higher Education. Enrollment
actually saw a substantial increase over the previous year in 2015, before
dipping again in 2016 to pre-2015 levels.
[to top of second column] |
 Tuition at Illinois’ public colleges and universities grew over
100 percent over the past decade
Illinois is suffering from an out-migration crisis, and students are
part of the exodus. But it’s not a new development triggered by the
stalemate of the past two years; the trend was clearly underway
since at least the turn of the century.
To be sure, the budget impasse and the mounting stack of unpaid
bills cause uncertainty, and if more students are leaving Illinois,
that’s likely a factor. But another major factor for the state’s
public colleges and universities is likely tuition uncertainty
fueled by skyrocketing tuition costs, which coincide with the
redirecting of taxpayer dollars away from the classroom and toward
growing administrator and pension costs. Constant tax hikes and the
ensuing tax uncertainty don’t help either.
In other words, a student may ultimately decide against an Illinois
university if she can’t predict what her tuition or tax burden will
look like from one year to the next.
Emanuel, like many Illinoisans, is frustrated. The state is failing
by nearly every measure. In fact, that’s presumably the main driver
of divestment from the state, by students and others. But baseless
finger-pointing only shrouds the real issues and delays action aimed
at getting the state on the right track.
The significant net loss of students since the start of the 21st
century is just a symptom of a deeper problem. Illinois isn’t
working – and hasn’t for decades. Neither blaming the governor for
disadvantageous trends that started well before his term, nor
throwing money at the state’s problems will fix it. That will
require real policy changes that focus on growing the economy,
lowering the tax burden, fixing cost drivers, and reducing state
spending.
Click here to respond to the editor about this article
|
