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 If they vote against, they could face the wrath of a vengeful and
combative president. If they vote for it, they risk retribution from
the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch and other powerful
right-wing players whose money can be pivotal in re-election races.
As Trump faces the most formidable, high-stakes negotiation of his
presidency, the fierce battle in the U.S. Congress over his plan to
replace Obamacare is a test of whether Republicans will trust him
with their political futures at the risk of alienating deep-pocketed
conservative advocacy groups.
As Trump and leaders in the House round up support for the bill
ahead of a planned Thursday vote, some groups are threatening to
retaliate against those who do support it, including the Club for
Growth, the Heritage Foundation's political arm, and Americans for
Prosperity, which is part of the expansive political pressure
network established by the Koch brothers.
All three groups are “keying” the vote, which means it will be a
factor in determining whether the groups deem a lawmaker to be
sufficiently conservative. That opens up the possibility that some
Republicans who vote in favor of the bill could face a primary
challenge in next year’s congressional elections and may not be able
to count on help from the Kochs and others.
Trump himself warned House Republicans in a meeting on Tuesday that
their seats will be at risk next year if they do not support his
healthcare bill, which would modify but not eliminate Obamacare,
formally known as the Affordable Care Act, Democratic former
President Barack Obama's signature healthcare legislation passed in
2010.
“He warned us that there are consequences if we don’t come together
for us as a party and also for individuals,” Representative Richard
Hudson of North Carolina said after the meeting. “He wasn’t
threatening in any way. He was just giving us a pretty clear
warning.”
Trump also told Representative Mark Meadows of North Carolina, an
outspoken critic of the bill, that he was "coming after" him,
according to people in the meeting. Meadows later said the president
was joking.
'OUTSIDER' JOINS ESTABLISHMENT
Some Conservatives believe the bill does not go far enough in
dismantling Obamacare and have not been satisfied by the White
House’s attempts to mollify them. NBC News reported on Tuesday that
26 House Republicans oppose the bill, which would leave House
Speaker Paul Ryan short of the 216 votes he needs. No Democrat is
expected to support the bill.
The conflict has created an odd dynamic: Trump, who ran as an
“outsider” candidate siding with the Republican political
establishment against the hard-line conservatives who were some of
his most ardent supporters.
At the same time, Trump has never been a favorite of libertarian
conservatives such as the Kochs, or of groups such as the Club for
Growth, because, among other things, he has never taken a strong
stand on reining in federal spending. They opposed him during the
Republican presidential campaign.
For them, the healthcare vote is a test of their continued relevance
in a party seized by Trump.
The Koch network spent an estimated $250 million on last year’s
election. The Koch-run Americans for Prosperity, which has chapters
in more than 30 states and boasts that it can deploy 3.2 million
citizen activists, spent almost $14 million on the 2016 elections,
according to federal records. Freedom Partners, another Koch entity
which largely targeted Democrats with attack ads, spent $30 million.
Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, would not say
directly that Republicans who support the bill will face
consequences next year, but noted, “Members of Congress know how
serious we take a vote like this.”
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James Davis, a spokesman for Freedom Partners, said “network
organizations will stand with principled lawmakers who will oppose
the House healthcare proposal.”
Davis said the Koch network would spend between $300 million and
$400 million ahead of the 2018 elections.
KOCH INFLUENCE
Last year, Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth targeted
an incumbent House Republican, then-Representative Renee Ellmers of
North Carolina, for being too close with House leadership and not
holding the line on government spending. Ellmers lost in a primary
fight.
House Republicans have been nervous about primary challenges since
2014 when Eric Cantor, then the majority leader, lost to a
little-known conservative named David Brat.
Phillips said his organization last year was instrumental in getting
Republican incumbents Senators Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of
Pennsylvania re-elected. The two leading Koch groups sat out
then-Senator Kelly Ayotte’s tight race in New Hampshire. Ayotte lost
by 0.1 percent of the vote.
“Groups such as the Kochs have been an important part of a coalition
of outside Republican money,” said Nathan Gonzales, a congressional
political analyst in Washington. “If that coalition falters, that
could contribute to Democratic gains.”
But several lawmakers interviewed by Reuters were dismissive of the
opposition by conservative groups.
“For me, this healthcare bill is an absolute no-brainer,” said
Representative Devin Nunes of California, a close Trump ally. “Any
conservative group who opposes it, I don’t even understand how they
can categorize themselves as being a conservative group.”
The bill’s supporters have argued that voters are more likely to
punish Republicans who do not act to replace Obamacare when given
the chance. “If it fails there are going to be a lot of people who
are looking for work in 2018,” said Representative Mike Conaway of
Texas.
The political implications of the bill, though, remain largely
unclear.
Even if it passes the House, the bill faces a difficult path in the
Senate, where several conservatives have declared their opposition.
Veteran House members recall in 2009, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi
forced a vote on a bill that would cap carbon emissions. The bill
did not pass the Senate, and many Democrats from coal states lost
their seats in the 2010 elections for their votes.
(Additional reporting by Susan Cornwall and Steve Holland; Editing
by Jason Szep and Bill Rigby)
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