Flake's retirement could upend Senate
race in Arizona
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[October 26, 2017]
By David Schwartz and Joseph Ax
(Reuters) - Republican Senator Jeff Flake's
surprise decision to drop out of next year's U.S. Senate race in Arizona
could be bad news both for the Republican who was challenging him and
for the Democrat seeking to win the seat for her party.
Republican Kelli Ward and Democratic U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema
had, in their own ways, each been counting on Flake's unpopularity in
their quest to win the November 2018 election.
"It was a bad day for Kelli Ward and a bad day for Kyrsten Sinema," said
Stan Barnes, a veteran Republican political consultant in Arizona.
Flake's departure has raised the stakes in the contest for one of only
two Republican-held Senate seats that Democrats appear to have a good
chance of flipping in 2018. Republicans hold a 52-48 edge in the Senate.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2017/Oct/26/images/ads/current/farmers_bank_sda_prom_050614.png)
Ward, an anti-establishment candidate backed by Steve Bannon, the former
strategist for Republican President Donald Trump, had targeted Flake
from the right. The former state senator was leading Flake in opinion
polls for next year's Republican nominating primary.
Sinema, a moderate Democrat, had counted on facing either a wounded
Flake, whose feud with Trump damaged his standing among Republican
voters, or Ward, whom many political analysts doubt could prevail in a
general election.
Now Sinema faces the prospect of a more moderate Republican emerging to
challenge Ward and, potentially, become the party's nominee. Sinema's
campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Ward "could win a primary, but she can't win a general," Jennifer Duffy,
who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report in Washington
said. "Please remember that Trump only carried the state by 4 points.
You can't have a nominee who's out there."
REPUBLICAN FEUDING
The battle between Flake and Ward had been seen as the latest
illustration of an ideological split between mainstream Republicans and
the party's anti-establishment wing.
In Alabama last month, a far-right Bannon-backed candidate defeated an
incumbent Republican in the party's primary for a December U.S. Senate
election.
Flake announced his retirement on Tuesday in dramatic fashion,
delivering a speech on the Senate floor that harshly criticized Trump's
behavior and his own party for failing to call it out.
His decision not to seek re-election immediately prompted speculation
that a number of Arizona Republicans would consider entering the race
against Ward.
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![](../images/102617pics/news_y39.jpg)
U.S. Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ) faces reporters after announcing he
will not run for reelection on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S.,
October 24, 2017. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
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In an emailed statement, Ward said her campaign was already surging
even before Flake's withdrawal.
"Other Republicans may decide to jump into the race at this late
point, but it's not something we're worried about," she said.
"Arizona is ready to have a true conservative represent them in the
Senate."
Republican consultants in Arizona said it would take weeks for the
new contours of the race to take shape, as potential candidates
weigh their chances, conduct internal polling and, perhaps, quietly
consult with one another.
Constantin Querard, a Republican strategist, said he found it
unlikely that many candidates would rush to enter the race after
having declined the chance to go after the unpopular Flake months
ago, when it seemed likely that Trump could throw his support behind
a challenger.
"There are no obvious names put forth today that are any different
from all the names bandied about when they were looking for someone
to take on Flake in the first place," he said. "But there will still
be some – and if any is a solid conservative, they will become the
odds-on favorite."
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2017/Oct/26/images/ads/current/llm_lda_FFARM_2017.png)
Duffy said the strongest Republican recruit was likely
Representative Martha McSally, a retired Air Force colonel and
strong fund-raiser who is seen as a rising star in the party. But
Duffy declined to predict whether McSally could beat Ward among a
very conservative Republican primary electorate.
"I stopped betting, oh, about November 8 last year," she said,
referring to the presidential election that Trump won in an upset.
(Reporting by David Schwartz in Phoenix and Joseph Ax in New York;
Editing by Peter Cooney)
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