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FLYING BLIND: ILLINOIS’ REVENUE ESTIMATES AND THE BASICS OF BAD BUDGETING

Illinois Policy Institute/ Adam Schuster

Revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics flipped Decatur’s jobs growth from negative to positive over the year, though the growth was meager.

While preliminary jobs data showed Decatur lost jobs over 2017, revisions released in March by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal the Soy City added 400 jobs in 2017, a gain of less than 1 percent.

The modest uptick in payrolls puts Decatur in 7th place among the state’s 13 metro areas for jobs growth in percentage terms over the year, according to seasonally adjusted data.

While small, this payroll growth is welcome news for Decaturites. Over the last decade, the Decatur metro area has not shown any signs of recovery from the Great Recession in terms of jobs growth. This lack of opportunity is reflected in a shrinking population. Among cities in Illinois with populations over 50,000, Decatur has seen the largest population loss since 2010 in percentage terms. Forthcoming data from the U.S. Census Bureau will reveal whether Decatur’s jobs growth in 2017 was able to reverse that trend.

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Given the slow growth in Illinois’ economy as a whole, which has been hampered by two major income tax hikes, Decatur’s struggle to mount a comeback is not surprising.

Nonfarm payrolls in the rest of the U.S. have grown twice as fast as payrolls in Illinois over the year.

While statewide problems tamp down Decatur’s potential for growth, local tax hikes on a shrinking population have not helped. These efforts have included increasing the city’s property tax, hotel tax and utility tax rates, as well as introducing a citywide motor fuel tax in April 2016.
In order to forge a path toward healthier jobs growth, Decaturites should expect reform from state and local governments.

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