LDN - Business

Investors regain risk appetite as U.S. air strikes look less imminent

[April 12, 2018] By Helen Reid

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares began to recover on Thursday and Wall Street futures pointed to a positive U.S. open, after U.S. President Trump signaled that military strikes in Syria may not be imminent, and a strong U.S. earnings season came into focus.

The risk of clashes between Western powers and Russia in Syria over an alleged chemical attack kept bond yields low, while crude prices fell back, having surged to 2014 highs as a result of political risk in the oil-rich region.

MSCI's world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> was down for the second day but European shares <.STOXX> managed a 0.4 percent gain as risky assets regained the upper hand.

Minutes from the European Central Bank's March meeting changed little in European trading, with investors waiting for speeches from ECB members Coeure, Constancio and Weidmann later in the day.

Sentiment in European stocks improved ahead of Wall Street's open with futures up 0.6 percent. <1YMc1> <ESc1> <NQc1>

Investors' expectations for very strong results from U.S. corporates in the quarterly earnings season kept them from turning overly bearish on stocks despite political risks.

The world's biggest asset manager, Blackrock <BLK.N>, kicked off the earnings season with profit ahead of estimates.

Trump on Thursday amended an earlier warning of a swift military strike on Syria, writing on Twitter "it could be very soon or not so soon at all", sending the dollar <.DXY> higher.

Trump had declared on Wednesday that missiles "will be coming" in Syria, taunting Russia for supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after the suspected chemical attack in Douma. Damascus and Moscow have denied any responsibility.

His comments raised the prospect of direct conflict over Syria for the first time between the two world powers backing opposing sides in the seven-year-old civil war.

Heightened geopolitical tensions have piled pressure on investors already rattled by a trade spat between the United States and China and a generally more volatile market.

"We are seeing this regime shift take place in terms of drivers to volatility," said Norman Villamin, chief investment officer of private banking at UBP in Zurich.

Villamin expects the VIX <.VIX> gauge of S&P 500 volatility to stay around the 20 mark - roughly twice its average level last year. The VIX was last trading at its lowest level since April 6.

"If your portfolio today looks like it did last year, then you probably haven't done enough to adapt your exposure," he said.

Crude prices fell back after three sessions of strong gains took them to their highest levels since late 2014 on Wednesday.

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The German share price index, DAX board, is seen at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 21, 2018. REUTERS/Tilman Blasshofer

U.S. crude futures <CLc1> last traded down 0.7 percent at $66.35 a barrel, having risen 7.4 percent so far this week. They traded as high as $67.45 on Wednesday.

Brent <LCOc1> declined 0.8 percent to $71.53 a barrel, having touched a high of $73.09 on Wednesday.

(For a graphic on 'Crude prices chart April 12' click https://reut.rs/2ILpqMy)

European government bond yields remained low as caution dominated ahead of ECB minutes and speeches from several ECB members. Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose 1 basis point to 0.512, staying near the one-week low it hit on Wednesday.

"Investors are really torn on bonds right now because they know the economy is strong and inflation is coming up," said UBP's Villamin.

He started adding to government bonds last month for the first time since 2016, hoping to benefit from bonds' relatively low volatility.

Safe-haven gold <XAU=> slipped 0.6 percent from an 11-week high after minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday raised expectations it could raise rates at a faster pace.

Risk appetite also returned to currency markets

The dollar index <.DXY> rose 0.3 percent to a session high after Trump's latest comments, though it was still near a two-week low. The safe-haven yen <JPY=> edged lower to 107.09 against the dollar.

The euro <EUR=> fell back 0.4 percent to $1.2329 ahead of the ECB meeting.

Russia's rouble edged up for a second day after heavy selling due to new punitive sanctions by the United States.

It traded around 61.69 to the dollar <RUB=>, still down more than 7 percent this week.

The Turkish lira <TRY=>, which has been highly sensitive to developments in neighboring Syria, recovered slightly to trade at 4.1011 per dollar after hitting a record low of 4.1920 on Wednesday.

The lira is down 2 percent so far this week, also hit by concern about inflation and the central bank's reluctance to tighten its policy.

Worries about the Middle East have overshadowed budding optimism that Washington and Beijing will work out a compromise to avert a trade war following a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday.

"Underneath the sabre-rattling, there's negotiations, so maybe that is a bit of a buying opportunity," said Gill Lakin, chief investment officer at Brompton Asset Management.

(Reporting by Helen Reid; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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