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 Deaths caused by heatwaves could increase dramatically in tropical
and subtropical regions, the study found, followed closely by
Australia, Europe and the United States.
Published in the journal PLOS Medicine, the study's results suggest
stricter mitigation policies should be applied to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, because lower greenhouse gas emissions are linked
with fewer deaths due to heatwaves.
Antonio Gasparrini, an expert from the London School of Hygiene &
Tropical Medicine who co-led the research, noted that several
countries around the world are currently being hit by deadly
heatwaves and said it was "highly likely" that heatwave frequency
and severity would increase under a changing climate.
"(But) the good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas
emissions...then the projected impact will be much reduced."
The researchers said they hoped their research, which used
mathematical modeling, would help decision makers in planning
strategies for climate change.
The model used different scenarios characterized by levels of
greenhouse gas emissions, preparedness and adaption strategies, as
well as population density to estimate the number of deaths related
to heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries from 2031 to
2080.
The results found that compared with the period 1971 to 2020 and
under the extreme scenario, the Philippines would suffer 12 times
more excess deaths caused by heatwaves in 2031 to 2080.
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Under the same scenario, Australia and the United States could face
five times more excess deaths, with Britain potentially seeing four
times more excess deaths from heatwaves in the same period.
These predictions improved, however, when scenarios were modeled
with policies implemented to fulfill the Paris Agreement on Climate
Change. Under the least extreme scenario, and compared with the
period 1971 to 2020, the study predicted that Britain would see only
around double the number of excess deaths caused by heatwaves in
2031 to 2080.
The researchers note that their work had some limitations, since it
could model only relatively simple assumptions of how countries may
or may not adapt climate policies.
The findings "should therefore be interpreted as potential impacts
under hypothetical scenarios, and not as projections of (the)
future," they said in a statement.
(Reporting by Kate Kelland, editing by William Maclean)
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