Democrats face 'almost impossible map' to
retake U.S. Senate
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[August 25, 2018]
By Tim Reid
CHICAGO (Reuters) - One political analyst
calls it "an almost impossible map." Others are even less optimistic.
But despite the Democrats' long odds to retake the U.S. Senate in
November’s congressional elections, party strategists meeting in Chicago
this week say the escalating legal troubles of President Donald Trump's
former associates and corruption scandals engulfing Republicans could
boost Democrats chances.
The path, however, remains difficult.
Democrats are defending two dozen Senate seats this cycle - including 10
in states Trump won in 2016, some by huge margins. They need a net total
of two seats to seize control of the chamber.
Having a majority would allow the party to derail or stall much of
Trump’s policy agenda and increase congressional oversight and
investigation of the administration, as well as complicate future
conservative nominations to the U.S. Supreme Court should another
vacancy occur.
Stu Rothenberg, a non-partisan political analyst, called the Senate
landscape "an almost impossible map" for Democrats. But, he added, given
the headwinds facing Republicans, "the Senate could be in play."
In interviews at the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in
Chicago, a dozen party strategists, party members and candidates
discussed the party's path and strategy to winning back the Senate,
which Democrats last controlled in 2014.
CRITICAL CONTESTS
Democrats say five races are particularly difficult this year. They are
spending hundreds of millions of dollars defending them. Losing just one
of the seats in West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana and
Missouri - all won by Trump in 2016 - could doom any shot of retaking
the Senate.
An array of state polls give Democrats hope. Opinion surveys show
toss-up races in North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. In Montana, which
Trump carried by 20 percentage points, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon
Tester leads recent polls by an average of five percentage points. In
West Virginia, which Trump carried by over 40 percentage points,
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is slightly ahead in recent polling.
“Those five states are clearly the biggest targets for Republicans,”
said Geoffrey Skelley, a non-partisan analyst at the University of
Virginia Center for Politics. “There’s two ways to look at the Senate
map. It’s really bad for Democrats, but the flip side of this is that
this is a perfect year for them to be defending it.”
A Republican operative working on Senate races said Democrats seeking
re-election in states where Trump remains popular should be worried.
"Their national party’s lurch to the left is doing nothing but turning
off voters in these states and further damaging their vulnerable
incumbents."
Florida's Senate fight concerns some Democrats. Polls show a tight race
between incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and Republican
challenger Rick Scott, the state's governor. Scott led Nelson by six
percentage points in a Florida Atlantic University poll released on
Tuesday.
While straining to hold all the states Trump won, Democrats are also
focused on Arizona and Nevada, which strategists said are crucial
pick-ups for the party.
In Arizona, where Republican Jeff Flake is retiring, Republicans are in
a three-way nominating contest ahead of voting next Tuesday. On the
Democratic side, Kyrsten Sinema leads in polls.
Senator Dean Heller of Nevada is considered the most vulnerable
Republican incumbent. Party strategists said his vote to repeal parts of
the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, has been a gift in a state
with many retirees and where access to healthcare is a major issue.
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U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) campaigns in Houston, Texas
U.S. November 11, 2017. REUTERS/William Philpott/File Photo
Democrats need to hold all the states they are defending and win Nevada
and Arizona to secure a one-seat Senate majority.
FOCUSING RESOURCES
Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC, two Democratic Super PACs,
are together spending at least $120 million on ads in Arizona,
Nevada, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Indiana.
Super PACs must operate separately from political campaigns but can
raise and spend unlimited money.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent
expenditure arm has made an initial television buy of $30 million in
Arizona, Nevada, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota.
The party and outside groups also have started to pour resources
into more long-shot opportunities to gain seats in Tennessee and
Texas, Democrats said.
Recent polls have placed Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke within
as few as two to four percentage points of Republican Senator Ted
Cruz in Texas.
In Tennessee's open race, former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen,
a popular moderate, is now in a close race with Republican
congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, according to polls.
HEALTHCARE, TAXES AND CORRUPTION TOUTED AS WINNING MESSAGE
Internal Democratic polling shows that healthcare and the Republican
tax cuts that some voters view as a giveaway to wealthy Americans
and corporations are winning issues for Democrats this November.
"Critical issues, like healthcare, are really important to voters.
And Republicans thought the tax cuts would be a winning issue, but
it's turned into a loser," said Karen Finney, a Democratic
strategist at the Chicago gathering. "We have these big issue trends
working in our favor."
DNC chairman Tom Perez made clear that Democrats in Senate battles
would highlight the legal troubles around Trump after the conviction
this week of Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, and
the guilty plea by his former personal attorney, Michael Cohen.
Cohen pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges including tax
evasion, bank fraud and campaign finance violations. He testified
that Trump had directed him to pay hush money to two women who
claimed they had affairs with Trump, and the payments were made to
influence the 2016 presidential election.
Trump, who has denied the affairs, says he paid Cohen out of
personal funds and that the payments were not intended to benefit
his campaign but to resolve a personal matter.
“The culture of corruption from this Republican leadership is out of
control," Perez told the party's meeting.
(Reporting by Tim Reid; editing by Colleen Jenkins)
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