|
 Yet today two-thirds of analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters
recommend the stock, making it one of the sector's biggest consensus
buys, and CEO Pascal Soriot says he is "absolutely" happy to carry
on into the 2020s as he chases early use of modern cancer drugs.
"I don't have any plans to retire anytime soon," he told Reuters.
Soriot and his team are increasingly confident that while
AstraZeneca may have lost one part of the battle for cancer market
dominance, it can still win elsewhere by targeting tumors before
they have spread around the body.
That is the second element of a twin-track strategy to differentiate
AstraZeneca in the hot area of immune system-boosting drugs, which
has seen rivals - led by Merck & Co <MRK.N> - leap ahead in
late-stage or metastatic disease.
The idea that immunotherapy may actually work best in less sick
patients is logical, since the immune system's natural role is to
destroy nascent tumors. Indeed, some cancer doctors believe this
could become the main battleground in future.
"It's not yet prime time ... but in the long run I think we will
move immunotherapy to a more front-line early disease situation and
I hope we will be treating more patients in that setting than in
late-stage disease," said John Haanen, an oncologist at the
Netherlands Cancer Institute.
JUMP-START
AstraZeneca already has a jump-start here, since its Imfinzi
immunotherapy is the new standard of care in treating early
inoperable stage III lung cancer. That win follows a decision to run
a study in this setting ahead of competitors.
"It was a smart move by AstraZeneca and they are now absolutely in
business," said Haanen.
Imfinzi sales will be a major focus for investors when the company
reports half-year results on July 26.
Competitor Merck last month presented similar stage III results from
a small study, but a larger trial using Bristol-Myers Squibb's <BMY.N>
Opdivo drug recently stopped recruiting patients, suggesting direct
competition is not imminent.
AstraZeneca hopes to build on this lead in the so-called adjuvant
setting, where drugs are given after surgery to keep the cancer from
coming back.
Its BR.31 immunotherapy trial with Imfinzi was the first to start
adjuvant therapy for lung cancer and the company thinks it could be
the first to complete a major trial, with disease-free survival data
due in 2020.
[to top of second column] |
"We are certainly hopeful to be the first," said David Berman, the
group's head of immuno-oncology.
Berman jumped ship from Bristol-Myers three years ago and believes
his new employer has hit on a winning strategy. "By moving to early
stage you can actually leapfrog competitors who are ahead of you in
stage IV," he said.
Still, the race is on in both the adjuvant and neoadjuvant setting,
where treatment precedes surgery. With each trial taking several
years, picking winners is not easy.
"If everyone is similar on timing, then it is going to come down to
data," said Liberum analyst Roger Franklin, who rates AstraZeneca a
hold.
HOW LONG TO TREAT?
Lung cancer is by far the biggest killer among cancers and the top
commercial opportunity for so-called PDx immunotherapy infusions
expected to be worth $15 billion in sales this year, according to
Thomson Reuters' consensus forecasts.
AstraZeneca estimates the majority of lung cancer patients are being
diagnosed relatively early in the disease, when there is a better
chance of a cure.
One issue that concerns doctors is how long patients treated
post-surgery should take immunotherapy drugs, especially given that
they cost nearly $150,000 a year.
Most of the adjuvant trials now under way against various cancers
are designed to give drugs for one year. Haanen is skeptical: "Do
you really need a year's treatment? Probably not."
AstraZeneca is also pushing its early treatment mantra beyond
immunotherapy with its lung cancer pill Tagrisso, which works is
targeted at patients with specific genetic mutations that are
particularly common in the booming Chinese market.
With a clear lead in this particular treatment area, AstraZeneca has
time to build out its Tagrisso business in early disease through two
big ongoing clinical trials.
Dan Mahony, a healthcare fund manager at Polar Capital, is bullish
on AstraZeneca's prospects but reluctant to predict how the fight
will play out in the long term.
Still, he says: "There's more going on at AstraZeneca than met the
eye a year ago."
(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
[© 2018 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2018 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |
