The drugmakers are touting rival strategies for fighting the AIDS
virus, with GSK betting that a shift to using two drugs rather than
the standard three will boost its market share, while Gilead sticks
with the tried and tested triple approach.
Deborah Waterhouse, head of GSK's majority-owned HIV business ViiV
Healthcare, aims to overtake Gilead as market leader in the $26
billion-a-year HIV market by the mid-2020s, assuming the gamble on
two-drug combinations pans out.
She has her work cut out. Gilead currently has a market share of 52
percent against GSK's 22 percent - a breakdown that has changed
little this year, despite the successful launch of Gilead's new
three-drug medicine Biktarvy.
Last week GSK reported successful headline results with its
experimental combination of dolutegravir and lamivudine, paving the
way for potential approval next year of a therapy some analysts see
selling $1.5 billion annually.
Details of its so-called GEMINI trials, however, will only be
disclosed at the biennial International AIDS Conference in Amsterdam
on July 24 - a day before GSK reports second-quarter results.
GSK was informed late last Friday that its presentation had been
accepted at the meeting, officials said.
Doctors will analyze the trial results closely to assess whether GSK
can indeed rewrite treatment standards by delivering a cheaper
two-drug regimen with fewer side effects.
The worry is it might risk drug resistance because the virus will
only have to evade two drugs rather than three. While no resistance
was seen in the latest 48-week trials, there was a case in an
earlier study, although GSK believes this was likely down to failure
to take the drugs properly.

As a result, analysts think many physicians may stick with using
three-drug combinations for now, suggesting a slow sales ramp-up for
GSK.
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That is certainly the expectation at Gilead, which anticipates
imminent approval of Biktarvy in Europe and will also have some
additional data to present in Amsterdam.
"Physicians are interested in anything new that comes along in HIV,
as they should be, but are a bit cautious about anything that steps
back from established standards," Mike Elliott, Gilead's European
head of medical affairs, told Reuters.
GSK is more upbeat but acknowledges the HIV community may be
divided.
"Some clinicians will take the 48-week data and be absolutely
convinced," ViiV head of R&D Kimberly Smith told reporters on
Wednesday.

"There will be others who, because this is a change in the treatment
paradigm, will want to see longer-term data. We will be providing
that as the GEMINI studies are designed to go for three years."
GSK has made HIV a central pillar of the British company's
pharmaceuticals division and its strategy is all about coping with
increasingly elderly patients who have to take HIV medicine for
decades.
Nearly half of all HIV patients in the profitable markets of North
America and Europe are now over 50 and are vulnerable to side
effects from the drugs that keep them alive, making tolerability
more important than in the past.
"Quality of life is where the unmet medical need is," said ViiV CEO
Waterhouse.
(Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
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