ECB drops easing bias, taking baby step toward stimulus
exit
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[March 08, 2018]
By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central
Bank dropped a long-standing pledge on Thursday to increase bond buys if
needed, taking another small step in weaning the euro zone economy off
protracted stimulus.
Keeping its broader policy unchanged, the ECB said it could still extend
its 2.55 trillion euro ($3.16 trillion) bond purchase scheme beyond
September if needed but omitted a reference to bigger purchases, a
signal that it remains on track to end a three-year-old stimulus scheme
before the end of 2018.
Having revived euro zone growth with lavish stimulus, the ECB has been
dialing back support in tiny increments, fearing any big change could
unravel its work and force an embarrassing and economically damaging
policy reversal.
"The net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of 30 billion
euros, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond,
if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a
sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its
inflation aim, the ECB said in a statement after its regular policy
meeting.

Dropping this so-called easing bias is largely symbolic as few if any
expected bigger bond buys but the move was still seen as a precursor to
a broader revision of the bank's policy guidance, a move flagged in
earlier meetings.
It will come as a surprise to some, though, as economists were split
before the meeting on when the ECB would take this step.
Investor attention now turns to ECB President Mario Draghi's 1330 GMT
news conference, at which he will unveil a quarterly update of economic
projections, a key input into policy decisions. He is also expected to
reveal whether the bank has already started work on revisions to its
guidance, a discussion the bank has said is likely to start in "early"
2018.
The new guidance is expected to remove a singular focus on asset buys in
lifting inflation and would spread the emphasis to a broader set of
instruments, including interest rates.
DICHOTOMY
The dichotomy facing the ECB is that while growth has blown past
expectations, inflation remains weak, having hit a 14-month low in
February and staying well short of its target of almost 2 percent, the
bank's sole mandate.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters are pictured in
Frankfurt, Germany, December 7, 2017. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File
Photo

While the bloc's five-year growth run and a rapid drop in unemployment suggest
that inflation will eventually rise, its rebound is still months away,
complicated by the euro's rise against the dollar, which puts a lid on price
growth.
Launched three years ago amid fears of deflation, the ECB's quantitative easing
scheme depressed borrowing costs and induced firms to borrow and invest, all
with the aim of generating inflation.
While the threat of deflation is long gone, the euro's volatility threatens to
derail the bank's efforts.
The single currency extended its gains after the decision to trade at $1.2419, a
touch below a three-year high hit last month.
Risks of a trade war with the United States, an inconclusive election in Italy
and falling bank share prices are all expected to add to the caution.
New economic projections are also not likely to justify a bigger policy shift in
the near term since they are expected to confirm earlier expectations, pointing
to an eventual rise in inflation but still indicating a lack of convincing
underlying price pressures.
Indeed, economists polled by Reuters expect bond buys to conclude at the end of
this year while a first rate hike is expected only in the second quarter of
2019.
With Thursday's policy decision, the ECB's benchmark deposit rate will stay at
minus 0.4 percent and the main refinancing rate, the main policy benchmark
during normal times, at 0.00. Asset buys are set to continue at 30 billion euros
per month.

(Additional reporting by Tom Sims; Editing by Catherine Evans)
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