Spring 2018 Logan County
Farm Outlook Magazine

The Big Picture

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[March 23, 2018]  What a great surprise the fall of 2017 harvest was! With area precipitation between five and twelve inches below normal, above average yields were not anticipated.

- Logan County corn yields averaged 213 bushels per acre according to preliminary information released by the National Ag Statistics Service.

- Soybean yields also were very good at 64.7 bushels per acre.

- Putting these yields in perspective, new ten year averages are 183.57 bushels per acre for corn and 56.85 for soybeans.

- While excellent, the yields didn’t approach the record yields of 230.8 for corn and 66.6 for soybeans.

The lofty yields of 2017 helped greatly toward improving the bottom line of producers, but did not leave all producers in the black ink category. Budgets remain tight on local farms due to the cost squeeze.

Using Gary Schnitkey’s preliminary crop return numbers, corn was estimated to return $5 per acre in our area using a yield of 225 and a price of $3.50 for corn with land costs of $270 per acre.

Soybeans were a little brighter with a return of $38 per acre using figures of 67 bushels per acre at $9.50 and the land cost the same $270.

One key difference in profitability is the average cash rent for Logan County hitting $289 per acre, according to the National Ag Statistics survey for 2017.

Dr. Schnitkey’s figures look a bit less optimistic for 2018 as we approach planting time, with his projections showing a loss of $63 per acre for corn and a profit of $3 per acre for soybeans.

Play with the yield numbers, crop prices, or input costs as much as you want. The end result is things have gotten very tight on local farms. This remains very important since the economic impact on Logan County is huge.

Using 2017 production, and prices around the first of March, corn and soybeans produced in Logan County were worth roughly $238 million.

Many items being discussed by the government officials in the state and national capitols will also affect profitability for the agriculture sector. The NAFTA agreement is being reviewed, and will possibly be renegotiated. NAFTA stands for the North American Free Trade Agreement, and means exactly what it says. The free flow of agricultural products from our country, into others, has helped boost an export market, which in turn helps bolster commodity prices.

The Waters of the United States, better known as WOTUS, is another item which could reduce regulation, compliance, and enforcement costs if repealed or enforced at the level of major streams only.

Changes to NAFTA are viewed as negative toward agriculture, while repeal or reduction of scope for WOTUS would be reviewed as positive.

Our area of the state is most suited to the row crop production of corn and soybeans. This is a double-edged sword as yields have dramatically increased, and the monoculture production has produced herbicide resistant weeds. New tools for combatting these resistant weeds have arrived, but not without some contentious moments.
 


Dicamba tolerant soybeans provide an option for controlling most of these herbicide resistant or tolerant weeds, but the use of dicamba has produced damage in areas surrounding treated fields due to vapor drift. In an effort to minimize off-site damage, additional training is now required in Illinois for applicators applying dicamba. The judicious use of the product will maintain its viability as a herbicide, and minimize its effects on surrounding fields and residential areas. Dicamba has been used in corn fields for many years, but application timing has limited the injury potential on sensitive crops and ornamentals. Application to soybean fields is traditionally much later in the growing season, and increases damage potential dramatically. Registration and restriction imposed on application at the state and national levels will greatly affect weed control options in the near future. One non-traditional source of farming has been alternative energy farms. Logan County currently has one wind farm online, with a second slated to begin construction shortly.

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Contacts continue to be made in the area for additional wind farms, and recently for solar energy farms. While these farms provide an influx of dollars into communities and government entities, their profitability has been dependent on so-called “green energy tax credits.”

Another challenge facing the industry is the consolidation of major agricultural companies. The benefits and costs of these combinations may be debated for centuries, but one immediate effect is the reduction in the sources of genetics available for other seed companies and growers alike. The loss of these germplasm sources can only be offset by the smaller number of companies developing new genetic material at about twice the rate they accomplished this feat only a few years ago. This applies to regular breeding programs and genetically modified products alike. Review of mergers and purchases of these major sources of genetic material is also a major policy decision.

The producers are eternal optimists, and continue to provide a safe and abundant food supply for all of us. Rains have come to help alleviate dry conditions in the upper soil layers. The days are getting longer, and the sunlight is more intense. Grass is greening up, and robins have reappeared. All these things point to spring, and another cycle of “sowing the seeds” for the agricultural community. While there are concerns, most are looking forward to the spring – and a new season is upon us once again.

[John Fulton]

One non-traditional source of farming has been alternative energy farms. Logan County currently has one wind farm online, with a second slated to begin construction shortly. Contacts continue to be made in the area for additional wind farms, and recently for solar energy farms. While these farms provide an influx of dollars into communities and government entities, their profitability has been dependent on so-called “green energy tax credits.”

Another challenge facing the industry is the consolidation of major agricultural companies. The benefits and costs of these combinations may be debated for centuries, but one immediate effect is the reduction in the sources of genetics available for other seed companies and growers alike. The loss of these germplasm sources can only be offset by the smaller number of companies developing new genetic material at about twice the rate they accomplished this feat only a few years ago. This applies to regular breeding programs and genetically modified products alike. Review of mergers and purchases of these major sources of genetic material is also a major policy decision.

The producers are eternal optimists, and continue to provide a safe and abundant food supply for all of us. Rains have come to help alleviate dry conditions in the upper soil layers. The days are getting longer, and the sunlight is more intense. Grass is greening up, and robins have reappeared. All these things point to spring, and another cycle of “sowing the seeds” for the agricultural community. While there are concerns, most are looking forward to the spring – and a new season is upon us once again.

[John Fulton] 
 

Read all the articles in our new
Spring 2018 Logan County
Farm Outlook Magazine

Title
CLICK ON TITLES TO GO TO PAGES
Page
The Big Picture 4
Tax Bill 199a boost to coop elevators raises local concerns 8
Is a re-designed NAFTA an exercise in futility or just a political pawn? 13
The Dicamba dilemma:  turning neighbor against neighbor 17
Seed corn growers move out of Logan County 24
Impacts of wind and solar farms 27
Illinois Farmers get shor reprieve from EPA's restrictive WOTUS Act 31
Wading through the confusion of crop classification 35
Logan County corn and soybean 2017 crop yields 40

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