Explainer: High-stakes state elections
will shape U.S. political power
Send a link to a friend
[November 02, 2018]
By Letitia Stein
TAMPA, Fla. (Reuters) - A high-stakes
battle over state-level offices is playing out in the Nov. 6 elections,
with Democrats and Republicans looking beyond Washington for more
political firepower to resist or support President Donald Trump's
agenda.
Democrats have targeted state races as a key part of their efforts to
rebuild after their devastating White House defeat in 2016. This year,
the party is fielding its largest slate of state legislative candidates
in more than three decades.
Republicans vow to defend their dominance over state government. They
hold 33 governorships and two-thirds of state legislative chambers.
Both parties increasingly view state laws and executive action as
pivotal to shaping the debate around national issues such as healthcare,
gun control and abortion rights. For Democrats, greater power in the
states would allow them to push back against Trump and Republicans even
if Democrats fail to gain control of the U.S. Congress.
Here are four ways elections in the states will define the U.S.
political landscape for years to come:
- CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING
Hundreds of legislators elected this year will be in office when
congressional district lines are redrawn after the 2020 census. In most
states, the party in power will control how the districts are shaped.
Significant Democratic legislative losses under President Barack Obama
allowed Republicans to draw lines favoring them after the 2010 census.
Voters in 36 states also are electing governors who will hold office
during the redistricting process - and in some key states, they yield
veto power over the congressional maps.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2018/Nov/02/images/ads/current/humanesociety_sda022411.png)
Keen for influence over redistricting, Democrats' top targets include
open governors' seats in Florida, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. In
Wisconsin, Republican Governor Scott Walker is seen as vulnerable in his
bid for a third term.
Heading into Election Day, Republicans appear highly competitive in many
of the states where the future majority in Congress will be shaped. They
also see a shot to pick up the top office in traditionally Democratic
Connecticut and Oregon.
- DIVERSITY
In Georgia, Stacey Abrams is vying to be the nation's first black female
governor - and her candidacy tests whether Democrats can win on
Republican turf in the age of Trump by fielding diverse candidates.
Abrams' candidacy could inspire higher turnout among minority and
younger voters, who tend to favor Democrats but do not reliably cast
ballots in non-presidential election years. Andrew Gillum's bid to be
Florida's first black governor has similar potential.
Both Democrats are running for open seats against Republican white males
who have been accused of racially inflammatory tactics, allegations they
deny. Ron DeSantis in Florida and Brian Kemp in Georgia have drawn the
support of Trump.
A record number of women also are running for state office this year,
mostly on the Democratic side.
Several competitive governor's races feature women candidates, including
Democrats Abrams in Georgia, Laura Kelly in Kansas, Janet Mills in
Maine, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, Michelle Lujan Grisham in New
Mexico and Kate Brown in Oregon and Republicans Kim Reynolds in Iowa and
Kristi Noem in South Dakota.
- STATE POWER
History does not favor Republicans this year in the 46 states electing
more than 6,000 legislators. In midterm elections, the party in the
White House typically loses approximately 400 seats around the country,
according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
[to top of second column]
|
![](../images/110218pics/news_t39.jpg)
A combination photo shows U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (L) and U.S.
Senator Ted Cruz (R) speaking to supporters in Del Rio, Texas, on
September 22, 2018 and in Columbus, Texas, U.S. on September 15,
2018 respectively. REUTERS/Sergio Flores/File Photo
![](../images/ads/current/richardson_lda_101218.png)
Democrats believe they can pick up six to eight legislative chambers
currently controlled by Republicans, with several more possibly in
play.
States with legislatures where Democrats see a chance at gaining
control include Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota and New
Hampshire. In a particularly strong year, Democrats think they could
also pick up chambers in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Wisconsin.
"We are entirely on the offense this cycle, and Republicans are
defending some tough terrain," said Jessica Post, executive director
of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which leads the
party's statehouse efforts.
Democrats may get a boost from groups engaged in long-shot
legislative races. Forward Majority, a political action committee
created this election cycle, is spending $9 million on some 120
contests in six battleground states - aiming to put enough seats
into to play to give Democrats a chance at flipping chambers that
are not generally considered winnable, such as the Texas House.
Republicans are targeting several narrowly divided legislatures
where just a seat or two would give the party a voice in potential
Democratic strongholds, such as New York and Connecticut.
- 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ROADMAP
Democrats appear poised to win governor offices in the Midwestern
and Rust Belt states that sealed Trump's 2016 victory, a potential
drag on his re-election chances in two years.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading or highly
competitive in opinion polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin, states that typically vote Democratic in presidential
elections but swung to Trump. These contests may foreshadow whether
Trump can count on holding onto states that helped him to achieve an
electoral college win, even as he lost the popular vote.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2018/Nov/02/images/ads/current/graue_18_TRAX_090418.png)
Most polls also show Gillum narrowly ahead in Florida, the largest
state that swings between parties in presidential elections. Trump
won Florida and having a Republican in the governor's office could
help boost his re-election efforts.
Texas is another state to watch. If Democratic Congressman Beto
O'Rourke comes even close to winning the U.S. Senate race against
Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in the conservative states, it may
portend shifting battle lines in the 2020 presidential maps.
Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott, however, is expected to win
his re-election bid easily.
(Reporting by Letitia Stein; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Alistair
Bell)
[© 2018 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2018 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |