Key governor races will shape America's future politics

[November 06, 2018]  By Letitia Stein

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (Reuters) - Showdowns in Georgia and Florida pitting black Democratic candidates against white Republicans supported by President Donald Trump headline the three dozen governors' races being contested in Tuesday's U.S. elections.

In Georgia, Stacey Abrams is vying to become the nation's first African-American female governor. She and Andrew Gillum in Florida would also be the first black governor in each of their states.

Abrams, 44, and Gillum, 39, are testing a new liberal path in Southern states where traditional, centrist Democrats have repeatedly lost. They seek to rally greater numbers of young voters and minorities, who typically favor Democrats but often sit out elections in non-presidential years.

"It's a very, very big experiment," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes governors' races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "Turnout in both of these states is going to matter a lot."

Trump's reputation is on the line with Republicans Brian Kemp, 55, in Georgia and Ron DeSantis, 40, in Florida after his endorsement helped them clinch their party's nominations. Accusations of race-baiting have dogged both candidates, who deny the charges.

While much of the focus on Tuesday is on which party wins control of the U.S. Congress, Republicans and Democrats are battling across the country for state-level power, which can help them support or resist Trump's agenda on issues such as healthcare, gun control and gay rights.

Democrats, playing catch-up after a net loss of 13 governorships and more than 900 state legislative seats during Democratic President Barack Obama's years in office, are fielding their largest slate of legislative candidates in more than three decades.

Republicans now control 33 governor’s mansions and two-thirds of state legislative chambers.

The outcome of elections for state positions could also affect future control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Governors and hundreds of legislators elected this year will be in office when congressional districts are redrawn after the 2020 Census. In some states, a governor's power to sign or veto congressional maps could decide the partisan balance.

DEMOCRATIC GAINS EXPECTED

Cook's Duffy expects Democrats to wrest between six and eight governorships away from Republicans, who are defending a large number of open seats in battleground states.

Critical contests are taking place in Midwestern and Rust Belt states that sealed Trump's 2016 victory, where Republican losses could hurt his re-election chances in 2020.

Republican gubernatorial candidate for Georgia Brian Kemp speaks as Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams looks on during a debate in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S, October 23, 2018. Picture taken on October 23, 2018. John Bazemore/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Opinion polls show Democratic gubernatorial candidates leading or highly competitive in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states typically vote Democratic in presidential elections but in 2016 swung to Trump, securing his win in the electoral college system that tallies wins in states, even as he lost the national popular vote.

Republicans are also fighting tough races in several states considered conservative strongholds in the north and central Great Plains.

"The eyebrow-raiser will be if Democrats pick up a South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma - these sort of very, very red (Republican) states," Duffy said, noting local dynamics, rather than national politics, were mostly responsible for Republican weaknesses.

Republicans, however, could gain in Democratic territory and pick up a pair of governor's seats in Oregon and Connecticut.

Opinion polls show tight races in closely watched Georgia and Florida.

Trump traveled to each state in the closing days of the campaign to energize Republicans at "Make America Great Again" rallies. Obama swooped in to boost the Democrats, and media star Oprah Winfrey visited Georgia on behalf of Abrams.

In Georgia, critics have drawn attention to Kemp's dual role as candidate for governor and supervisor of the state's elections, in his capacity as Georgia secretary of state. Kemp accused Democrats on Sunday of trying to hack voter registration systems, while offering no supporting evidence. Democratic Party officials quickly denied the charge.

The main Georgia gubernatorial candidates face an added challenge from a minor party candidate. If neither Abrams nor Kemp wins a majority of the vote on Tuesday, their battle continues to a December runoff election.

(Reporting by Letitia Stein; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Frances Kerry)

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