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 Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan is about to see two things
he’s never seen before. And given he’s been in the Statehouse since 1971, that’s
saying something.
The first is the strength of his majority.
Democrats have never held more than 72 seats in the 118-member Illinois House,
with the high water mark coming in 1991. The magic number required to put a
constitutional amendment on the ballot and override the governor’s veto is 71
votes.
As of Nov. 8, House Democrats are in line for 73 House seats in 2019, possibly
74 – a new record. It will be Madigan’s largest majority ever.
The second is the type of person who will occupy the governor’s office.
Madigan has worked with two governors of his own party since he was first
elected House speaker in 1983: Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn. These two men were
not shrewd power brokers, to say the least. Madigan could pinion both at will.
Enter billionaire Gov.-elect J.B. Pritzker, who just spent more than $170
million to unseat Gov. Bruce Rauner. That money is a total game-changer for
Madigan’s Democratic Party, which has traditionally relied on government worker
unions, trial lawyers and business interests who need special favors in order to
fill its coffers.
So far, Madigan has brought Pritzker entirely into the fold. He knew Pritzker’s
money would be a major boost for his House candidates across the state.
But what happens when Pritzker goes from candidate mode to manager mode? He will
inherit a massive bill backlog, a state that’s one notch above a junk credit
rating and a budget that’s already out of balance by $2 billion. He will not be
able to raise enough revenue to cover already-bloated spending and new promises
in the short term. Something’s got to give.
Government unions, for example, might not get everything they want at every
turn. These fractures will be where Pritzker’s money becomes a double-edged
sword for Madigan.
Those deep pockets could provide the speaker covering fire to go against his
traditional power base. But Pritzker’s money could also offer Madigan’s House
members the same cover should they dare to go against the speaker.
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For the first time ever in Madigan’s speakership,
Democratic lawmakers could have a real choice to seek shelter
elsewhere when a tough vote comes around.
One key factor in all this is what Madigan wants
beyond power: legacy. It’s clearly on his mind.
The day after polls closed, Madigan released an odd personal
statement under the Democratic Party of Illinois letterhead. In it,
he claims Republicans lost because they tried to make the election a
referendum on Madigan, but that strategy backfired because the
speaker is actually “a champion of smart economic and social
policies” and has provided “real, tangible economic benefits to the
people and families of this state.”
It’s completely out of touch with reality. And Democrats know that.
Recall that in 2012, a political action committee closely linked to
Madigan paid for mailers attacking … Madigan. The mailers were sent
in support of a Democratic challenger running against incumbent
Republican state Rep. Skip Saviano. “A vote for Skip Saviano is a
vote for Mike Madigan!” said one. “Democrat Speaker Mike Madigan
calls the shots for Skip Saviano,” said another.
If voters actually love the speaker, Senate Democrats must not have
received the memo.
Three Democratic Senate challengers ran a week’s worth of TV ads in
September calling for term limits on Madigan, before the Chicago
Federation of Labor demanded they be taken down. Of those three
challengers, one picked up a Republican seat and another is down
just 12 votes with mail-in ballots left to be counted.
In Madigan’s own chamber, Democrat Anne Stava-Murray pulled off a
shocking upset in Chicago’s western suburbs against incumbent
Republican state Rep. David Olsen. Stava-Murray vowed to vote
against Madigan for House speaker.
Madigan remains a black eye for the Democratic Party brand in
Illinois. His House members are well aware of that. But for now,
they still need his protection.
Come inauguration in January, that could change.
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