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Today, in the final stretch to November’s congressional
elections, they are showing that Trumpism has its limits as
Democrats make surprising gains in races across the region,
according to opinion polls.
Last week, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray,
often described as a liberal “progressive populist,” campaigned
in working-class Toledo in a race that has remained tight with
election day just two weeks away -- a sign of a resurgence in
his party in Ohio.
“We will change this state for the better. We will change this
nation for the better,” Cordray told a room of black voters in
downtown Toledo on Thursday. “2018 leads to 2020.”
A poll released this month by Suffolk University showed Cordray
with a six-point lead, although other polls have showed the race
to be essentially a toss-up.
Not only is Cordray, the former head of the Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau who has long been vilified by Republicans as
an anti-business zealot, staying neck-and-neck with his
opponent, Mike DeWine, but U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, a
Democrat, is on track to keep his Ohio seat in his race against
Trump-backed candidate Jim Renacci.
That pattern is playing out in other states in the Great Lakes
region that Trump won in 2016, where Democratic Senate and
gubernatorial candidates are either convincingly ahead of their
Republican opponents or, like Cordray, beating expectations and
holding their own.
It suggests that Republican hopes that Trump had transformed the
industrial Midwest into friendly ground may have been misplaced.
Beyond the Nov. 6 elections, which will decide which party
controls the Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, that
has ramifications for Trump’s reelection bid in 2020.
The reasons why Democrats now have an edge in these states are
complex and go beyond Trump’s standing, party sources and
analysts say. It is a mix of historical midterm election trends,
well-known Democratic candidates with reliable constituencies
facing weaker Republican opponents, enthusiasm among Democratic
voters, deepening concerns on issues such as healthcare, and
yes, some push-back against the president.
“Folks are just sick and tired of him. It’s too much,” said Joe
Zepecki, a Democratic strategist in Wisconsin. “It’s the Trump
show all the time. And that is not helping Republican
candidates.”
A Republican source familiar with the party’s thinking, however,
said the problem lies more with Trump himself not being on the
ballot, which has left many of his supporters in these states
either disengaged or willing to consider supporting Democrats.
“If it’s not Trump, they’re not going to pull the R lever just
because it’s the same party of the president,” the source said.
Democrats need to pick up a net total of two seats to take
control of the Senate and 23 seats to assume control of the
House, which is considered more likely by election handicappers.
Taking either chamber would stymie much of Trump’s agenda.
CHANGE OF SEASON
After Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the thinking was that
perhaps Democrats had lost touch with their traditional
middle-class supporters in this “Rust Belt” region. Republicans
looked to capitalize and tighten their grip on power.
But that has never materialized.
Beyond Ohio, in next-door Pennsylvania, Democratic governor Tom
Wolf is comfortably ahead of his challenger, Scott Wagner, who
aired a shocking TV ad threatening to stomp Wolf’s face with
“golf spikes” in a last-minute effort to spark his campaign.
The U.S. Senate race there, featuring incumbent Democrat Bob
Casey against U.S. Representative Lou Barletta, another Trump
favorite, has long considered to be over in Casey’s favor.
In Michigan, Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow never faced a
serious threat from her Trump-supported opponent, John James.
And Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has held a steady lead in the
governor’s race over Republican Bill Schuette.
In Wisconsin, where Trump’s presidential victory in 2016 marked
the first by a Republican in the state since 1984, Republican
Governor Scott Walker is in the fight of his political life
against his Democratic challenger Tony Evers, while the state’s
Republican Senate candidate Leah Vukmir is badly trailing
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin in a race that was widely
expected to be competitive.
A poll this month by Marquette University showed Evers and
Walker tied. The same poll gave Baldwin a 10-point lead in the
Senate race.
Trump’s efforts appear to have done little to boost the
prospects of the candidates he has endorsed, despite his
multiple trips to the region and his promises that renegotiated
trade deals with Canada and Mexico and strong tariffs will bring
jobs back to the Rust Belt.
Despite that push, unions such as the AFL-CIO have been heavily
involved in the region's races, encouraging members to back
Democratic candidates and mobilizing voters, hoping to avoid a
repeat of 2016 when many members defected to Trump, said Julie
Greene, director of mobilization for the union.
Trump’s hold in the Great Lakes has never been as strong as he
has claimed. While he took Ohio by 445,000 votes, he won
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with their combined 46
electoral votes, by less than 1 percentage point, or by total of
just about 80,000 votes. He can afford little slippage in the
region when he runs for reelection.
HEALTHCARE FOCUS
Capturing governorships and statehouses has been a longstanding
goal of the Democratic Party with the next U.S. census
approaching in 2020. States will use the results to redraw
congressional districts, a process that was dominated by
Republicans in 2010.
Democratic officials and strategists believe healthcare and
specifically, former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care
Act, once a political liability, have become a difference-making
issue.
Candidates such as Cordray and Evers have centered much of their
campaigns around the act’s protection of preexisting medical
conditions and its expansion of Medicaid. All four Trump states
have been hit heavily by the opioid epidemic.
That’s put Republicans, who largely resisted what they call “Obamacare,”
in a bind.
A poll released last week by the Kaiser Family Foundation listed
healthcare as the top voting issue for Democrats and
independents, particularly among women voters.
Walker in Wisconsin and DeWine in Ohio both at times have backed
efforts to repeal the act or challenge it in court. But both
candidates say they have always favored coverage for preexisting
conditions in some form.
Success in congressional midterm elections has been an
unreliable indicator for the following presidential election.
For example, after a Republican wave in 2010 resulted in that
party taking the House, Obama was reelected two years later.
That is why Steve Mitchell, a Republican pollster in Michigan,
warned that Democrats should not underestimate Trump’s strength
in the region.
A presidential election, he said, “is a whole different animal.”
(State of Play is a weekly examination by Reuters political
correspondent James Oliphant on the key races, players and
issues in the run-up to U.S. congressional elections in November
that will determine which party controls Congress)
(Editing by Jason Szep and Alistair Bell)
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