LDN - Business

Italy budget tussle goes down to wire, upsets markets

[September 27, 2018] By Giuseppe Fonte

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's new government struggled to contain a fierce internal battle over fiscal policy on Thursday, hours before it was due to unveil its 2019 budget targets, sparking a sell-off of state bonds and reviving fears the economy minister could quit.

Bond yields surged on fears the battle between ruling-party leaders and the fiscally conservative minister could lead to a delay in the much-anticipated release of the budget targets, due to be agreed by the cabinet in the evening.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's office has denied the cabinet meeting will be delayed. It is currently expected to start at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) in Rome.

Investors had interpreted an unsourced report in Corriere della Sera newspaper that the meeting would be pushed back a day or so as a sign Economy Minister Giovanni Tria may indeed resign despite repeated denials from his office, the latest of which came on Thursday.

Before the cabinet meeting, Conte, Tria, the leaders of the two ruling groups - the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the right-wing League party - and other key ministers will meet to hammer out differences, 5-Star leader and Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said.

A government source said that meeting will start at 4 p.m. (1400 GMT).

Five-Star and the League are pushing Tria, an academic not affiliated to either party, to ramp up the fiscal deficit to finance their promises of tax cuts and higher welfare spending.

The cabinet is due to sign off on the new targets for economic growth, the deficit and public debt for 2018-2021, with most attention focused on the 2019 deficit goal.

Tria has softened an initial insistence the deficit should not exceed 1.6 percent of gross domestic product and is now willing to accept a ratio of around 1.9 percent, government sources have said.

That would compare with a current target of 1.6 percent for this year, and would be sharply up from a 0.8 percent goal pencilled in for 2019 by the previous center-left administration.

Tria's Treasury department forecasts that a 2019 deficit above 1.9 percent would put at risk the containment of Italy's debt, the highest in Europe after Greece, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

However, the League and 5-Star, which formed a government in June, have been pushing for more to fund their election promises.

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Italian Economy Minister Giovanni Tria attends as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (unseen) speaks during his first session at the Lower House of the Parliament in Rome, Italy, June 6, 2018. REUTERS/Tony Gentile/File Photo

Late on Wednesday a source from the ruling majority said the parties wanted the goal set at 2.4 percent, as meetings continued to try to break the impasse.

The targets form the framework for the 2019 budget, which must be approved by the cabinet by Oct. 20.

MARKET NERVES

Tria said on Wednesday the budget would include the parties' flagship policies, including a basic income for the poor and a lower retirement age, though it remains unclear how wide-ranging such measures will initially be and how they will be financed.

The League and 5-Star, rivals ahead of an inconclusive election in March, say they will govern together for a full five-year term and phase in most of their policies gradually.

Financial markets have been nervous since the government took office due to fears its spending plans will boost Italy's debt, which is already the highest in the euro zone after Greece's as a proportion of GDP - around 131 percent.

Italy's government bonds had rallied this week on the expectation Tria could water down the coalition's more radical proposals and keep a lid on public finances.

In a speech on Wednesday Tria tried to strike a balance between promising a growth-friendly, expansionary budget and maintaining the trust of markets as well as avoiding a head-on clash with the European Commission.

"We are working on a mix of policies that show everyone they should have confidence in Italy, not only in our public finances but in our economic growth," he said.

(Additional reporting by Massimiliano Di Giorgio and Giselda Vagnoni in Rome and Francesco Guarascio in Brussels, writing by Gavin Jones and Steve Scherer, Editing by Mark Bendeich and Toby Chopra)

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