Using a computer model, researchers determined that the labeling
policy, which is set to go into effect between 2020 and 2021, might
prevent nearly 1 million cases of heart disease and diabetes,
according to the report published in Circulation.
"Our study is the first to estimate the potential health and
cost-saving benefits of the FDA's added sugar labeling," said study
coauthor Renata Micha, a research associate professor at the
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University.
"We found that, over the next 20 years, the impact of the FDA's
added sugar labeling to nudge consumer choices could save nearly 1
million cases of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, $31
billion in net healthcare costs, and $62 billion in societal costs."
If the labeling spurred the food industry to reduce the amount of
sugar used in its products, that could result in even bigger
benefits, Micha said.
For their computer models, the researchers used data from the
National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES), which
each year involves a nationally representative sample of about 5,000
people. In particular, the researchers looked at 24-hour dietary
intake forms completed on two separate occasions by adults ages 30
to 84.
Among the assumptions made in the modeling was the impact labeling
would have on sugar consumption. Micha and her colleagues estimated
that people would decrease added sugar intake by 6.8 percent because
of the labeling. In an analysis of what would happen if companies
reformulated their products as a result of the labeling, the
researchers assumed an additional 8.25 percent decrease in added
sugar intake.
Those sugar reduction estimates came from "real world studies where
the presence of a label on a product led to positive consumer
responses," Micha said in an email. "As with any medical or public
health intervention, our estimates represent average population
effects; for any given individual there may be larger or smaller
changes."
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A model with just consumer behavior changes and no industry
reformulations in response to the label changes predicted 354,400
fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 599,300 fewer diabetes cases,
$31 billion saved in healthcare costs and $61.9 billion saved in
societal costs. When the researchers ran the model with both the
label change and the reformulation of products, the result was
708,800 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 1.2 million fewer
cases of diabetes, $57.6 billion saved in healthcare costs and
$113.2 billion saved in societal costs.
Micha suspects that the second scenario is a real possibility with
the new labeling.
"Our work and that of others, including recent experience with
trans-fat labeling in the U.S., suggests that mandating labeling of
added sugar content would stimulate the food industry to reduce
sugar in their products," Micha said. "Some companies are already
reformulating their products to reduce added sugar content, partly
driven by the consumer's demand for healthier products."
Experts welcomed the new study for providing a window on how new
labeling might impact health and healthcare costs.
"Overall, I think it's an important study," said Dr. Rekha Kumar, an
endocrinologist at NewYork-Presbyterian and Weill Cornell Medicine
and medical director or the American Board of Obesity Medicine.
"What I think is the biggest assumption is that people will know how
to read the food labels and will actually read them."
The other big assumption is that people "will understand the
correlation of added sugars with long term cardio metabolic health,"
Kumar said. "For many, the connection is not immediate."
Consumers may need more education to make that connection, said
Shelley Kendra, clinical manager of food and nutrition services at
Magee-Women's Hospital at the University of Pittsburgh Medical
Center.
"My hope is that the findings will turn out to be correct," Kendra
said. "With cardiovascular disease and diabetes continuing to rise
it would be great if a simple thing like changing food labels could
help. But I think there definitely has to be an education piece
involved."
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/2ZcCmEm Circulation, online April 15, 2019.
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