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 Illinoisans have been hearing their state is shrinking for five
years now. But new figures released Thursday say something they’ve never heard.
From Walla Walla to Waco, there are 383 metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs,
across the country. Illinois is home base for 10 of them. From July 2017 to July
2018, all 10 shrank.
That’s never happened before. And many other figures from the new release are
disturbing.
No other state in the lower 48 saw all of its metros shrink. Illinois joins
Alaska, which saw both of its MSAs (Fairbanks and Anchorage) lose population, as
the only states with red across the board.
 The Chicago MSA saw the largest raw decline of any metro area in the nation over
the year, shrinking by 22,000 people. Losing so much talent is undoubtedly a bad
sign. But 22,000 people is 0.2% of that area’s population. In terms of the scale
and speed of decline, other parts of Illinois stand among the nation’s
worst-off.
Since 2010, the Decatur area has lost 5.5% of its population. That’s 7th worst
among all metros nationwide.
The Danville area has lost 5.9% of its population over that time. Only four MSAs
nationwide have seen worse declines.
The Census Bureau also released county-level data, where other stories emerge.
Alexander County in Southern Illinois, home of Cairo, has lost an astonishing
26% of its population since 2010. That’s the heaviest loss of any county in the
nation.
Rockford’s Winnebago County has lost 3.7% of its residents since 2010. That’s
only a trickle compared with Alexander. But among U.S. counties with over
200,000 people, it’s fifth-worst. St. Clair County’s loss of 3.4% comes in close
behind at No. 8.
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Of Illinois’ 102 counties, 86 lost population over
the year. And 93 have lost population since 2010.
The overwhelming driver of this decline is simple: the flight of
Illinoisans to greener pastures, and a lack of new bodies from
elsewhere to replace them. An aging population means less natural
growth from births outweighing deaths, which makes migration
patterns matter even more.
In 2004, Federal Reserve economist Joshua Gallin published a
methodology for estimating the drivers of state-to-state migration
decisions, accounting for things like climate, age and labor market
conditions. An Illinois Policy Institute analysis using the Gallin
method shows the labor market has driven the majority of Illinois’
outmigration.
The state’s punishing tax climate and ominous mountain of debt have
repelled new jobs and investment. People follow.
It’s important to note that this is the first local population data
Illinoisans have seen covering the year after state lawmakers passed
the largest permanent income tax hike in state history. By costing
Illinois thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic
activity, the 2017 income tax hikes made the Land of Lincoln a less
attractive place to live.
Residents are again hearing the same song. Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s $3.4
billion “fair tax” hike will be on the docket when lawmakers return
to Springfield at the end of the month. This old, failed formula
won’t fix Illinois’ most pressing problem.
“Think Big” was one of the governor’s campaign slogans. State
lawmakers need to extend that sentiment to something besides tax
hikes.
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