LDN - Business

Oil rises 2% as recession fears recede

[August 16, 2019] By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Aaron Sheldrick

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Crude oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday, recovering from two days of declines after data showing a rise in U.S. retail sales helped to ease concerns about a recession in the world's biggest economy.

Brent crude <LCOc1> was up 2% at $59.48 a barrel at 0924 GMT, after falling 2.1% on Thursday and 3% the previous day. U.S. crude <CLc1> was also 2% higher at $55.60 a barrel, having dropped 1.4% in the previous session and 3.3% on Wednesday.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, Thursday's data showed.

That came a day after a sell-off in world markets that followed the U.S. Treasury yield curve's first inversion since June 2007 - a development usually seen as a reliable predictor of looming recession.

"The rebound has a corrective look about it on thin volumes, rather than a beachhead for an impending rebound," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Overall, U.S. data continues to be a bright spot in a dark economic universe."

World stocks also rose on Friday as expectations grew for further stimulus by central banks, offsetting worries about slowing economic growth.

Gains are likely to be capped after a week of data releases included a surprise drop in industrial output growth in China to a more than 17-year low, and a fall in exports that sent Germany's economy into reverse in the second quarter.

"The broader story around global economic growth has been a weak one, or a weakening one, and expectations (are for) further weakening," said Phin Ziebell, senior economist at National Australia Bank.

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A wastewater injection well owned by Parsley Energy operates in the Permian Basin near Midland, Texas U.S. August 23, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

The price of Brent is still up nearly 10% this year thanks to supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+.

In July, OPEC+ agreed to extend oil output cuts until March 2020 to prop up prices.

"At what point will further output cuts be needed at the back end of this year from OPEC and Russia to keep things going the way they are?" Ziebell said.

A Saudi official indicated this month that more steps may be coming, saying Saudi Arabia was committed to do "whatever it takes" to keep the market balanced next year.

OPEC's efforts have been undermined by worries about a slowing global economy amid a trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as rising U.S. stockpiles of crude and higher output of U.S. shale oil.

(GRAPHIC - U.S., Russian, Saudi crude oil production png: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com
/gfx/editorcharts/OIL-PRODUCERS-BIGGEST/0H001PGD96QK/eikon.png)

(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Aaron Sheldrick; Editing by Joseph Radford, Richard Pullin and Jan Harvey)

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