U.S.-led pressure fractures as China, Russia push for North Korea
sanctions relief
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[December 17, 2019]
By Josh Smith
SEOUL (Reuters) - A proposal by China and
Russia to ease U.N. sanctions on North Korea increases pressure on the
United States and signals what is the likely end of unified efforts to
persuade Pyongyang to give up its growing nuclear and missile arsenal.
On Monday China and Russia proposed that the United Nations Security
Council lift a ban on North Korea exporting statues, seafood and
textiles, and ease restrictions on infrastructure projects and North
Koreans working overseas, according to a draft resolution seen by
Reuters.
The plan comes at a crucial moment - just weeks before the deadline set
by North Korea for Washington to offer more concessions - and highlights
deepening divisions over how to engage with North Korea.
Russia and China, which both wield veto power on the Security Council,
were key votes in imposing the sanctions in recent years under the
"maximum pressure" campaign championed by U.S. President Donald Trump's
administration.
The United States says it would be premature for the U.N. to consider
lifting sanctions right now and has called for North Korea to return to
the negotiating table.
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Since North Korea and the United States established a detente in 2018,
however, both Moscow and Beijing have increasingly voiced support for
easing sanctions. Now, the official proposal represents a new level of
public pressure on the United States, analysts said.
Last week, China's ambassador to the U.N. said a major cause of the
deadlock and rising tensions was a failure to respond to "positive
steps" taken by North Korea toward denuclearisation.
"The Russia-China initiative at UNSC is likely coordinated with
Pyongyang as the proposal reflects North Korea's demands to be rewarded
for the concessions it has already taken," said Artyom Lukin, a
professor at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok. "Pyongyang's
recent threats of escalatory action are now backed by the Sino-Russian
diplomatic offensive."
China and Russia are effectively undercutting the United States’ current
strategy on North Korea, he said. "Pyongyang has again demonstrated its
unrivalled capacity to exploit rivalry between great powers."
China hopes the U.N. Security Council forms a consensus on the draft
resolution, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Tuesday,
urging North Korean and the United States to keep talking.
South Korea, which is a close U.S. ally but which has also expressed
willingness to ease some sanctions as part of a deal with North Korea,
said on Tuesday sanctions could only be eased through a consensus among
Security Council members and called for diplomatic efforts to be focused
on resuming talks.
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Other analysts noted Beijing and Moscow have shown increasing unity on
the issue of security on the Korean peninsula.
Sanctions relief is crucial for both China's Northeast Area
Revitalization Plan as well as Russia's economic interests in the
Russian Far East, said Anthony Rinna, a specialist in Korea-Russia
relations at Sino-NK, a website that analyses the region.
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![](../images/121719pics/news_p25.jpg)
A tourist uses binoculars to look across to North Korea from a tower
built on the Chinese side of the border between Russia (L), China
(C) and North Korea (R) near the town of Hunchun in China, November
24, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo
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"Recently the Chinese government has stated that sanctions relief
for North Korea is imperative, and Beijing has a much higher chance
than Moscow of being taken seriously in Washington," he said.
"Furthermore, sanctions are a part of the joint Sino-Russian action
plan for peace on the Korean Peninsula."
The call to lift sanctions affecting rail infrastructure and foreign
workers, for example, are two areas that are key economic interests
for Moscow, Rinna added.
ECONOMIC LEVERAGE
North Korea has set a year-end deadline for Washington to make
concessions like easing sanctions. Otherwise, leader Kim Jong Un has
said he may be forced to choose an unspecified "new path".
China and Russia appear concerned about what North Korea's next
steps may be, and the call for sanctions relief is a way to try to
avoid a return to the nuclear weapons tests and intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) launches that led the two countries to join
the United States and its allies in imposing the strict sanctions,
analysts said.
"Moscow generally feels that pressure is the wrong track to take
with North Korea, yet if Pyongyang engages in more provocations in
the coming year this could be a serious test for both China and
Russia's tolerance of North Korea," Rinna said.
China, meanwhile, appears to be wielding ever-greater economic clout
over North Korea.
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A recent report by a South Korean trade association found China's
proportion of the North's overall external trade rose to 91.8
percent last year, compared with 17.3 percent in 2001. Thousands of
Chinese tourists provide a further, much-needed economic lifeline.
Behind the scenes, there are reports that unofficial trade between
China and North Korea has also increased.
"This could give Pyongyang pause if they're pondering a hardline
approach for next year" said Andray Abrahamian, a visiting scholar
at George Mason University Korea. "That said, they traditionally
have pushed back hard against supposed Chinese leverage, aware that
China is willing to punish North Korea, but not to the point that it
causes real instability."
Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based
think tank, said he hopes Russia and China teaming up could keep Kim
restrained for the time being.
"We don’t know what China and Russia’s red-lines are, but it’s
reasonably safe to assume another ICBM or nuclear test would force
both countries to recalculate its current position," he said.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Gareth Jones)
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