Dollar takes a breather before Fed minutes; yuan hits three-week high

[February 20, 2019]   By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar paused on Wednesday as traders positioned ahead of the release of monetary policy minutes, while China's yuan rose after the United States pressed Beijing to prevent a sharp weakening of its currency as part of any trade deal.

The euro/dollar exchange rate, stuck within recent ranges, traded quietly as investors waited for cues on where U.S. monetary policy is headed after the Fed's recent dovish tilt.

The euro, which has struggled this month as worries grew about the state of the euro zone economy, slipped 0.1 percent to $1.1334.

ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele said the bank had downgraded its euro forecasts for 2019 because of economic concerns.

"However, we also expect limited downside in the euro, because weaker than expected euro zone data have had only a limited negative impact on the euro, suggesting that most of the weakness is reflected in the price," Boele said.

The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, edged higher to 96.591, below a two-month high hit last week.

Demand for the greenback has ebbed on optimism that a fresh round of talks between China and the United States would help resolve their trade conflict.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell sharply to an 11-day low on Tuesday ahead of the Fed meeting minutes, which are due later on Wednesday, further dampening demand for the dollar. [US/]

The minutes from the January Fed meeting will be closely watched following a dovish statement at that review.

Analysts say weaker than expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production numbers published this month have also dented the near-term outlook for the dollar. According to MUFG the data "challenged the view that the U.S. economy will continue to hold up relatively well while overseas economies are displaying more acute weakness".

U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

YUAN REBOUND

The yuan, a strong performer in 2019, firmed to a three-week high on optimism that Washington and Beijing are close to agreeing a deal to end their trade conflict.

In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as much as 6.7168, its strongest since Feb. 1.

(Graphic: China's yuan vs the dollar - https://tmsnrt.rs/2EkeLJl)

The yen fell another 0.3 percent against the dollar to 110.95 after disappointing trade numbers showed Japanese exports fell the most in two years in January.

The yen had taken a hit on Tuesday after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus measures if sharp yen rises hurt the economy.

Sterling slipped 0.3 percent but held above $1.30 following Tuesday's surge on hopes Prime Minister Theresa May can make progress in Brussels on Wednesday as she tries to tweak her Brexit withdrawal agreement.

(Editing by Gareth Jones and David Holmes)

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