Spring 2019 Logan County
Farm Outlook Magazine

Could new anhydrous price lower N application rates?
By Teena Lowery

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[March 26, 2019]  In 2019 farmers are faced with yet another variable that will undoubtedly affect their cost of production - the sudden rising cost of anhydrous ammonia. Some farmers will be inclined to use less anhydrous ammonia per acre because their budget did not allow for the price hike that took place at the beginning of the new year.

Tom Harms is the manager of Herrin Fertilizer Inc. in Mount Pulaski, a position he’s held for 16 years. Harms has also been a stockholder in the company the past four years. This is the first time in his career he has seen contracts rewritten because of a sudden increase in anhydrous ammonia prices.

“The price is much higher,” said Harms. “It’s really controlled by the manufacturers and the pipeline. Something happened this year I’ve never seen happen before. Our contracts were cancelled and new contracts were written in January that were significantly higher. I’ve never seen that in my tenure.” Harms has 20 years experience in the fertilizer business.

“We’ve always had contracts that they’ve added storage to when we couldn’t get the anhydrous on, but this is the first time that, I believe, it’s ever happened where they actually cancelled them and have rewritten them,” said Harms.



How much has the price of anhydrous risen?

“Considerably,” answered Harms.

"For anhydrous ammonia retail it probably went up about $120 to $150 a ton from December 31st to January 1st, overnight,” Harms emphasized. “I am sure, in defense of the manufacturers, some of this is due to they are going to have a tough Spring getting things aligned in the pipeline and getting things stored in the proper locations for transports, so there’s a lot of logistics that go into the spring that normally isn’t there. It’s going to be a mad dash to the finish line.”

So that means when the weather finally turns nice enough to plant, farmers will want their nitrogen applied and plant corn at the same time. For Herrin Fertilizer, Inc. that means there won’t be enough hours in the day to cover their workload, but somehow they will get the job done. They always do.

“Basically corn gets planted in our area, I am guessing in about 10 days, so you’re going to have to get these nitrogen products on in front of this. Everything is gonna happen very fast or attempt to happen very fast, I should say,” said Harms.

“Fortunately, there is different forms of nitrogen. We sell a lot of five percent nitrogen solution. We sell 28 percent nitrogen solution. So some of this pressure on anhydrous will go to these markets. We are in a pretty good position to do liquids. The price on the five percent probably has not gone up as drastically as what anhydrous and 28 percent solution has gone up. It’s gone up some but probably not as drastically. It’s logistically challenged too, to get all these solutions done, too.”

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“I know part of the concerns are, will there be a lower application rate due to the higher cost?” mentioned Harms.

“What we’ve learned in basic agronomy from the land grant universities is that it requires one pound of nitrogen for every bushel of corn grown.

"Now there’s been some research trying to get this number to flex maybe to seven-tenths pounds of it, but everything that I have read, we are not to that point. It’s still one pound of N per bushel of corn.

"Now you can take some credits for your dry applications that have some nitrogen in them. You can maybe take a little bit of credit for your soybean stubble on first year corn. However, we cannot look into the crystal ball to see how much nitrogen is going to mineralize in the soil. So that’s why we use the agronomy handbook of one pound applied per bushel of corn grown. So I don’t see that rate changing much.

"They’ve been experimenting at land grant universities, but there’s nothing etched in stone. Dr. Emerson Nassar spent his whole life researching this project and he’s got a lot of great research on it, but I am not sure a general consensus between land grant universities has ever been reached because it’s a moving target. It changes so much every year.”


 

Read all the articles in our new
2019 Spring Farm Outlook Magazine

Title
CLICK ON TITLES TO GO TO PAGES
Page
Farm Outlook Spring 2019 - Introduction 4
China's approval of Enlist E3 Soybeans added to corn givens farmers more options 7
New developments in the pursuit of E15 13
Could new anhydrous price lower N application rates? 17
New Tech:  Robots and drones to play a larger role in farm production 21
A layman's Guide to signaling with basis 28
Choosing legacy seeds in a GMO world 32
The Klockenga's:  A lineage of family farming 38

 

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