LDN - Business

Oil set for biggest quarterly rise since 2009 amid OPEC cuts, sanctions

[March 29, 2019] By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday amid OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, putting crude markets on track for their biggest quarterly rise since 2009.

Brent crude oil futures were up 75 cents at $68.57 a barrel by 1150 GMT, set for a gain of more than 27 percent in the first quarter.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were at $60.15 per barrel, up 85 cents, and on track for a rise of more than 32 percent over the January-March period.

For the two futures contracts, January-March 2019 is the best-performing quarter since the second quarter of 2009, when both gained about 40 percent.

Graphic: Crude futures quarterly performance - https://tmsnrt.rs/2HSqli7

Oil prices have been supported for much of this year by an agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia to cut output by around 1.2 million barrels per day.

"Production cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers have been the main reason for the dramatic recovery since the 38 percent price slump seen during the final quarter of last year," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Barclays bank said on Friday oil prices "are likely to move still higher in Q2 and average $73 per barrel ($65 WTI), and $70 for the year".

Prices shrugged off a tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday calling for OPEC to boost crude production.

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Pumpjacks are seen against the setting sun at the Daqing oil field in Heilongjiang province, China December 7, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

"While OPEC, and above all Saudi Arabia, appeared in November to be obeying U.S. President Trump's repeated demands to increase oil production, his tweets now are more likely to fall on deaf ears," Commerzbank said in a note.

OPEC and its allies are scheduled to meet in June to set policy, but some cracks in the union are emerging.

OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia favors cuts for the full year while Russia, which joined the agreement reluctantly, is seen as less keen to restrict supply beyond September.

U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela are also buoying prices.

Washington is exerting further pressure on oil traders to cut oil dealing with Venezuela or face sanctions themselves.

GRAPHIC: Russia, Saudi & rest of OPEC crude oil production - https://tmsnrt.rs/2CHr9lJ

Bank of America said it expected oil to rise in the short term, with Brent forecast to average $74 per barrel in the second quarter.

Heading towards 2020, however, the bank warned of a recession.

A monthly Reuters survey of economists and analysts forecast Brent would average $67.12 a barrel in 2019, about 1 percent higher than the previous poll's $66.44.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson)

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