LDN - Business

Yen surges as Trump's Mexico threat fuels recession fears

[May 31, 2019] By Abhinav Ramnarayan

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors retreated into the perceived safety of Japanese yen on Friday and the Mexican peso plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump's shock threat to slap new tariffs on Mexico, which risked tipping an already struggling global economy into recession.

Several different currencies have served as safe havens during the global trade conflict, but the yen has consistently been among the strongest this year, and on Friday investors appeared to opt for the Japanese currency.

The impact of escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing is starting to show up in economic data, with a key measure of Chinese manufacturing activity disappointing investors, and Trump's latest salvo fueled a rush on Friday to safe-haven assets such as government bonds and the yen.

The U.S. dollar has itself served as a safe haven currency in recent times, but on Friday it fell as much as 0.8% against the yen to 108.78, its lowest since early February, while also slipping 0.2% against the euro and 0.15% against a broad basket of its rivals.

Commerzbank FX strategist Ulrich Leuchtmann said the potential tariffs were particularly worrying as they didn't seem motivated by trade imbalances.

"The U.S. trade policy has taken a qualitatively different turn. Using tariffs as a tool for non-economic goals is something which brings a new quality to proceedings," Leuchtmann said.

"This also means that the U.S. administration is not a reliable partner in trade agreements, which the Chinese I'm sure will watch carefully," Leuchtmann added.

Taking aim at what he said was a surge of illegal immigrants across the southern border, Trump vowed on Thursday to impose a tariff on all goods coming from Mexico, starting at 5% and ratcheting higher until the flow of people ceases.

The threat hit the Mexican peso, which fell 3% to a five-month low of 19.74 per dollar, putting it on track for its biggest daily drop since October last year.

The dollar's losses were compounded by comments from senior policymakers, with the U.S. Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida discussing the possibility of rate cuts should the world's biggest economy take a turn for the worse, though he also said he thought the U.S. economy is in "a very good place".

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A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration

Clarida's comments that he was open to a rate cut if the U.S. economy dims, coming on top of the tariff worries, pushed U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest levels since September 2017, further eroding the interest rate advantage between U.S. yields and other government debt.

That said, the U.S. dollar's weakness could well prove short-lived as many investors do treat it as a safe haven currency as well, said BNY Mellon FX strategist Neil Mellor.

"Risk aversion has actually been a driver for the dollar this year, particularly as we have seen so many central banks 'out-dove' the Fed," he said. "This weakness could simply be Friday positioning, as many traders don't like to be left exposed over the weekend."

He said the Swiss Franc had also picked up a bit of a bid, and indeed, the currency was up 0.34% at $1.00425.

It was a painful session for the riskier currencies anyway, and in the midst of all the worries around Brexit, sterling is set for its worst monthly loss against the single currency in two years.

The Chinese yuan, meanwhile, is set for its worst month since July last year and was heading toward the crucial seven per dollar figure. It was at 6.9290 per dollar on Friday.

The euro also fell sharply against the Japanese yen and was down nearly 0.7% at 121.165, its lowest since a Jan. 3 flash crash.

(Reporting by Abhinav Ramnarayan; Editing by David Holmes and Stephen Powell)

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