LDN - Business

Dollar drifts lower as U.S.-China trade talk outcome awaited

[November 06, 2019] By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar drifted lower against other major currencies on Wednesday as investors awaited fresh developments in the U.S.-China trade talks.

As the United States and China work to narrow their differences enough to sign a "phase one" trade deal as early as this month, hopes of a breakthrough have boosted sentiment across world markets.

But after sizeable moves on Tuesday, which included a strengthening in China's offshore yuan to three-month highs against the dollar, currency markets moved into wait-and-see mode.

That sentiment was echoed in global stock markets, which steadied after a three-day rally.

"The market now wants confirmation that there is a venue, that this (phase one deal) will be signed," said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

"A lot of good news was built into the price and unless we get something more, a little bit of disappointment will come through."

At 1130 GMT the dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against other major currencies <.DXY>, was a fifth of a percent lower at 97.798 after rising 0.4% the previous day.

The dollar was 0.2% softer at 109.01 yen, although still within sight of a three-months high hit last week at 109.285.

Europe's common currency, meanwhile, was a touch firmer at $1.1089 <EUR=>, having dropped 0.5% against a broadly-robust greenback on Tuesday.

The Swiss franc <CHF=> changed hands at 0.9929 to the dollar, little changed on the day, following its 0.5% fall the previous day.

Analysts said better-than-expected U.S. economic data in the past week had eased expectations for further easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve and that this boded well for the dollar outlook.

A survey of the vast U.S. service sector published on Tuesday showed that business sentiment had improved in October from a three-year low in September.

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U.S. dollar notes are seen in this November 7, 2016 picture illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The rebound is a welcome sign for dollar bulls as a fall in the service sector index would have suggested that the malaise among manufacturers hit by the trade war was also infecting the service sector. That followed a strong U.S. employment report on Friday.

"Latest data has helped eased concern about a sharp slowdown in growth," said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG.

"We have now had the U.S. ISM and jobs report and they were both stronger than expected and that provides a firm foundation for the dollar this month."

Data released on Wednesday showed German industrial orders rose more than expected in September, offering a glimmer of hope for an export-powered economy hit hard by global trade tensions.

The generally positive mood supported the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, which changed hands at $0.6899 <AUD=D4>. It was little changed on the day but has maintained gains of 3.4% since hitting a 10-1/2-year low on Oct. 2.

China's offshore yuan steadied around 7.00 per dollar <CNH=EBS> in Europe after having risen to a three-month high of 6.9867 to the dollar on Tuesday on hopes for a trade truce.

The currency has gained almost 3% from its record low in the offshore trade marked in early September.

(Graphic: G7 implied vol, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/mkt/12/8299/8230/G7%20implied%20vol.png)

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in TOKYO; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Gareth Jones)

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