|
 Analysts, however, said the time frame appeared ambitious, with the
disease still spreading in parts of the country and so much of the
herd gone.
The year-long pig epidemic has slashed China's pig herd by more than
40%, and has pushed prices of the country's favorite meat to record
levels.
At a briefing on Thursday, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Husbandry
and Veterinary Bureau of China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Affairs, said inventories at large farms have started to rebound.
"Various supporting policies and market factors have helped boost
confidence in (pig) farming significantly, and enthusiasm for
production among small and big farmers is further improving," Yang
said.
Pig production has recovered rapidly at farms that slaughter more
than 5,000 pigs a year, Yang said. Inventories reached 44.46 million
animals in September, up 0.6% on a month earlier, while sow herds
climbed 3.7% to 6.10 million head.
Major producing provinces including Henan, Shandong, and Liaoning
also saw a considerable pick-up in pig inventories in September from
the previous month, he said.
And production and sales of pig feed have rebounded strongly, with
output of hog feed up 10% in September from the previous month.
TIGHT TIMETABLE
Analysts, however, said a forecast for a return to normal herd
levels in 2020 was optimistic, with stopping the spread of the
disease key to a recovery and no cure or vaccine yet available.
Pig production is recovering in the north, but is still falling in
the south and southwestern regions, said an analyst with a Chinese
consultancy, who declined to be named because of sensitivity around
the issue.
[to top of second column] |
"If the disease can stabilize and doesn't reoccur, stocks might
start to recover," she said, but even then would not reach normal
levels until at least the second half of 2020.
And while large farmers - including corporate pig producers such as
C.P. Pokphand Co and New Hope Liuhe - have been expanding rapidly,
eyeing large profits from soaring pork prices, small farmers have
traditionally made up the bulk of pork production.
The country's hog inventory stood at 428 million animals at the end
of 2018, according to official data.
It also takes about 18 months to build, stock and produce pigs at a
new farm, said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank, who said the
ministry's goal was unrealistic.
"In the first half of next year I think the herd will continue to
drop," she said.
Some companies have restocked farms that were infected with the
disease only to see it reoccur, she said, while many small farmers
have neither the capital or the will to boost their herds.
For a graphic on China pork prices seen surging further as African
swine fever spreads click,
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/7/6916/6898/
ChinaPorkPricesOct2019.png
(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; Editing by Kenneth
Maxwell and Richard Pullin)
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