Democrats see silver lining in suburbs, but rural challenges remain
after close loss
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[September 12, 2019]
By Jarrett Renshaw and Susan Cornwell
(Reuters) - Democrats preached optimism on
Wednesday after losing a special congressional election in North
Carolina, citing suburban gains and the close margin in a district
President Donald Trump won by 12 percentage points as signs of strength
going into 2020.
But the results from Tuesday's vote also showed a deepening divide
between rural voters and the Democratic Party in the state's 9th
District - a schism Trump and other Republicans are certain to exploit
in next year's elections.
“There are still Blue Dog Democrats in the district who feel more and
more that the party has left them with the super-liberal views," said
Phillip Stephens, chairman of the Republican Party in Robeson County,
which sits in the 9th District.
"I should know, I was one of them," he said, referring to centrist and
conservative Democrats.
North Carolina is expected to be among a handful of battleground states
in the November 2020 presidential election. For Trump, who won the state
by almost 4 points in 2016, North Carolina is considered a must-win
among many political pundits, while offering Democrats an avenue to
potentially capture the White House.
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Republican Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready by 2 percentage
points on Tuesday to fill the last remaining seat from the 2018
election. McCready also narrowly lost to Republican Mark Harris in 2018,
but the results were thrown out by the state’s election board after a
ballot-fraud scandal cast doubt on their legitimacy.
Both parties viewed the election do-over as something of a test run for
next year's contests, when Trump will seek another four-year term and
Republicans will try to win back the U.S. House of Representatives from
Democrats. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence rallied for Bishop in
North Carolina on the eve of the vote.
Bishop, a conservative state legislator, ran on a Trump platform and
painted his opponent as a far-left liberal. McCready, a small-business
owner and U.S. Marine Corps veteran, rarely mentioned Trump and
portrayed himself as a moderate.
McCready won the densely populated Charlotte suburbs in Mecklenburg
County by 12 percentage points, continuing the national trend of
traditionally Republican suburban areas shifting toward Democrats as
highly educated voters tire of Trump.
Those gains were not enough to overcome a poor performance in rural
counties like Robeson and Bladen.
President Barack Obama won Robeson County, a rural region once dominated
by Democrats, in 2008 and 2012 before it went to Trump in 2016. In the
2018 election that was eventually overturned, McCready won the county by
roughly 15 percentage points, but squeaked out just a 1-point victory in
Tuesday’s contest, election records show.
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![](../images/091219pics/news_u39.jpg)
Dan McCready, the Democratic candidate in the special election for
North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, acknowledges cheers
from his supporters as he takes the stage to deliver his concession
speech with his wife Laura after his loss in the contest, in
Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S., September 10, 2019.
REUTERS/Jonathan Drake
![](../images/ads/current/fitzpatrick_lda_SPONSOR_2017.png)
Stephens, the local Republican chairman, credited his party's
turnaround to a strong messaging campaign that linked McCready to
the party’s more liberal policies and a candidate not afraid to
express his conservative views.
Democratic voter registrations in the county have dipped to about
62% from 80% in 2004. Most of the defections have registered as
unaffiliated with a party, a prized cohort who can still participate
in nominating primaries.
LESSONS FOR 2020
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which tracks
congressional races nationally, said the victory would allow
Republicans to enjoy the power of incumbency in the district and
avoid having to spend millions to dislodge McCready.
Republicans must contend, however, with the fact that Democrats
pulled off a 10-point swing in the district from 2016, said Eric
Heberlig, a political science professor at the University of North
Carolina at Charlotte.
"If Republicans think this means everything is in good order, they
are missing the flashing lights as well," he said.
Turnout and interest in North Carolina will be high next year.
Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and U.S. Senator Thom Tillis, a
Republican, are both making their first re-election bids in what are
expected to be tight races.
Those contests are expected to attract record spending by the
campaigns and outside groups, political experts say.
Democratic leaders in North Carolina and Washington said on
Wednesday they would continue their outreach to rural voters,
arguing their party's agenda was designed to improve life for all
Americans.
Asked how important North Carolina is to Trump’s re-election,
Kayleigh McEnany, the campaign’s national press secretary, said all
states were important and that the campaign’s data-intensive efforts
would help direct spending.
“But," she added: "We are holding the Republican National Convention
in Charlotte, so I think that tells you how important we think it
is.”
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(Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw in Fayetteville, North Carolina and
Susan Cornwell in Washington; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Peter
Cooney)
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