|
 STATEWIDE MODEL
Compared to the previous model forecasts which predicted peaking
between late April and early May, that timeframe of plateauing near
a peak has been expanded from mid-May into mid-June in Illinois.
Daily death and hospital capacity data over the course of the last
two and a half weeks have informed the model and led to the updated
predictions.
A later and lower peak is a positive indicator of flattening the
curve and a result of a slowdown of the state’s rate of
transmission, which leads to a slower rate of increase over a longer
period. Under current mitigations, hospital bed and ventilator
capacity remains sufficient to treat COVID-19 patients. In other
words, Illinois will reach the peak without overloading the state’s
health care system as seen in other parts of the world.
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The state’s modeling efforts are led by top
researchers from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,
Northwestern School of Medicine, the University of Chicago, the
Chicago and Illinois Departments of Public Health (IDPH), and
managed by Civis Analytics, using IDPH’s data of COVID-19 cases,
deaths, hospitalizations, ventilator and ICU usage from hospitals in
Illinois.
[to top of second column] |
 REGIONAL METRICS
All four of the regions are meeting many of the key metrics, with
three of the four on pace to meet all of the Restore Illinois
reopening metrics to move forward after the 28-day period:
North-Central, Central and Southern.
As of midnight, May 8, the Northeast region’s positivity rate is at
22.3 percent, higher than the 20 percent cap on this metric to move
into the next phase. The North-Central region is at 9.1 percent, the
Central region at 6.0 percent, and the Southern region at 10.5
percent.
All of the regions have seen a dip in hospitalizations since May
1st: 18.6 percent decrease in the Northeast region, 35.8 percent
decrease in the North-Central region, 44.4 percent decrease in the
Central region, and 54.3 percent decrease in the Southern region.
A requirement to move forward to next phase is that a region sees no
overall increase, rather stability or a decrease, in hospital
admissions for COVID-like illness across a 28-day period.
As of midnight May 8, all four regions met the third requirement of
available surge capacity of at least 14 percent for ICU beds,
medical/surgical beds, and ventilators.
|
Region |
Med/Surge
Bed
Avail. |
ICU Bed
Avail. |
Ventilator Avail. |
|
Northeast |
17.8% |
18.8% |
64.3% |
|
North-Central |
41.1% |
40.6% |
64.9% |
|
Central |
52.4% |
44.2% |
74.6% |
|
Southern |
45.8% |
28% |
80.7% |
Please note that Illinois has begun using a seven-day
rolling average of daily-reports since May 1, to smooth volatility
in the daily metrics and to better inform the overall time trend.
[Office of the Governor JB Pritzker] |
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