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The
shift reflects the effects of fresh restrictions enacted by
state and local governments to combat a resurgence in
coronavirus infections. U.S. employment growth slowed
considerably in July, reflecting a potential slowdown in the
economic rebound. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.8 million jobs
last month, compared to the record 4.8 million jobs added in
June, the Labor Department said on Friday.
Consumers said the mean perceived probability of losing their
job over the next year increased to 16% in July from 15% in
June, above the 2019 average of 14.3%, according to the New York
Fed survey.
The mean expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will be
higher in a year started rising again in July after falling for
three straight months from the series high of 50.9% reached in
March. Consumers put the odds at 39.3% in July, up from 35.1% in
June.
People with jobs remained likely to stay put with their
employers. The average probability that a worker would leave his
job voluntarily was unchanged at 18.9%, below last year's
average of 21%.
Inflation expectations rose slightly in July, with the median
expectation for the next year rising to 2.9% from 2.7% in June.
The median inflation expectations for the next three years rose
to 2.7% in July from 2.5% in June. Consumers below age 40
reported the biggest increases in inflation expectations.
The survey of consumer expectations is a monthly poll based on a
rotating panel of 1,300 households.
(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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