When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?
Send a link to a friend
[August 11, 2020]
By Carl O'Donnell
(Reuters) - Around the world, politicians,
drugmakers and regulators offer contradictory outlooks on when a
COVID-19 vaccine will be ready. Much depends on what 'ready' means and
for what group of people. Some key questions around the timeline are:
WHEN WILL WE KNOW A VACCINE WORKS?
More than half a dozen drugmakers around the world are conducting
advanced clinical trials, each with tens of thousands of participants,
and several expect to know if their COVID-19 vaccines work and are safe
by the end of this year.
The most optimistic timeline comes from AstraZeneca Plc <AZN.L>, which
is running a study in Britain that it says could be completed as early
as August.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, told Reuters
last week that a trial by Moderna Inc <MRNA.O> could produce decisive
results by November or December. Others will come later, some much
later.
Some experts are skeptical that the trials, which must study potential
side effects on different types of people, can be completed that
quickly. Peter Hotez, the dean of the National School of Tropical
Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, says that collecting
enough data to prove a vaccine is safe for the world could take until
mid-2021.
WHEN WILL THE FIRST SHOTS BE READY?
Several drugmakers are building manufacturing capacity so they can begin
production as soon as vaccines are approved by regulators. Some efforts
are backed by a U.S. government program called 'Operation Warp Speed'.
Fauci told Reuters he expects "tens of millions" of doses to be
available in early 2021, and that by the end of the year there could be
more than a billion. That contrasts with more optimistic guidance from
U.S. President Donald Trump, who said a vaccine could be ready before
the Nov. 3 presidential election, though he did not define 'ready'.
Several companies, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer Inc <PFE.N>,
say they each expect to make more than 1 billion doses next year. That
could mean several billion available by the end of 2021.
WHEN CAN I GET IT?
First supplies late this year or early next would likely go to those in
rich nations who are deemed by governments to work in essential
industries or who are at greatest risk from the virus. That is likely to
include people with other issues such as diabetes, healthcare workers,
and members of the military.
Countries including Canada, Japan, Britain, and the United States have
locked in deals putting their citizens first in line for inoculations as
they become broadly available during 2021.
[to top of second column]
|
A woman holds a small bottle labeled with a "Vaccine COVID-19"
sticker and a medical syringe in this illustration taken April 10,
2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/
Most vaccines are being tested as two shots given a month apart,
giving full strength protection only after the second shot is
administered.
WHEN WILL THE WORLD BE INOCULATED?
The wait time for COVID-19 vaccines will likely be longer for people
in developing countries, which don't have early supply deals. Some
may struggle to pay for vaccines that could cost upwards of $40 per
person, said Hotez.
"I am worried that Operation Warp Speed vaccines will not reach
developing countries any time soon," Hotez said.
Gavi, a vaccine alliance for developing countries, aims to secure 2
billion doses of vaccine in 2021, enough to inoculate the most
vulnerable 20% of the population in poorer countries. Several
manufacturers, including the Serum Institute of India, are preparing
to manufacture for poor and middle-income countries.
WILL I BE ABLE TO GET A CHINESE VACCINE?
The Chinese government has authorized some experimental vaccines to
be used in select patients outside of clinical trials, making it the
first country to have vaccines authorized for wider use.
But they are unlikely to be available in the West any time soon.
Domestic regulators would need to approve them, and clinical trials
by Chinese companies outside of China are still ongoing.
WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA?
Russia is close to approving a vaccine developed by Moscow's
Gamaleya Institute but it has not carried out large-scale efficacy
and safety trials. It still must manufacture and distribute the
vaccine.
(Reporting by Carl O'Donnell, editing by Peter Henderson and Rosalba
O'Brien)
[© 2020 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2020 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |