The
poll also showed machinery orders in June rose for a second
straight month and core consumer prices probably grew for the
first time in four months in July.
But analysts say weak global demand and restrictions on business
activities in some major economies due to a resurgence in
infections suggest any recovery in the world's third-largest
economy will likely only be moderate.
Exports in July were projected to fall 21.0% from a year
earlier, less than a 26.2% tumble in June, the poll of 16
economists showed.
Imports, however, were expected to have dropped by a sharper
22.8% from a year earlier after a 14.4% fall the previous month,
resulting in a trade deficit of 77.6 billion yen ($725.84
million), the poll found.
"Global reopening of economic activities probably helped the
nation's exports to escape from the worst period," said Yusuke
Shimoda, senior economist at Japan Research Institute
"But the pace of global economic recovery will likely remain
modest due to uncertainty over the containment of the
coronavirus. Exports likely tumbled year-on-year."
The poll also showed machinery orders, a leading indicator of
capital expenditure, rose 2.0% in June from the previous month,
after a 1.7% gain in May.
Analysts said the reopening of businesses after a nationwide
shutdown supported core machinery orders, but worsening
corporate profits and uncertainty over the outlook would
probably limit the pace of recovery.
The government is due to publish trade data and machinery orders
at 8:50 a.m. on Wednesday (2350 GMT Tuesday).
The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products
but excludes volatile fresh food prices, likely rose 0.1% in
July from a year earlier, helped by a pick-up in oil prices and
some recovery in consumer demand, the poll showed.
The CPI data will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday.
(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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