A faltering U.S.-China trade deal is now the nations' strongest link
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[August 14, 2020]
By Andrea Shalal, David Lawder and Yawen Chen
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) - Top U.S. and
Chinese trade officials are expected to recommit to a Phase 1 trade deal
during a review on Saturday, even though China's promised purchases of
U.S. exports are far behind schedule.
Current and former U.S. government officials and trade experts in both
countries say the Phase 1 deal, signed in January after nearly two years
of tit-for-tat tariffs and angry rhetoric, is the one area where the
world's two largest economies are still cooperating.
The Trump administration has sanctioned companies and individuals linked
to a security crackdown in Hong Kong and human rights, banned a Chinese
owned video app, penalized Chinese academics and closed Beijing's
consulate in Houston in recent months.
Beijing has responded by closing the U.S. consulate in Chengdu and
sanctioning some members of Congress.
Despite the escalating conflict, the Phase 1 trade deal won't be
dismantled, U.S. officials say.
"They have said they intend to implement the plan and we are engaged
with them," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Thursday. "We
have big differences with China on other matters, but regarding the
Phase 1 trade deal, we are engaging."
Chinese trade advisors say the slowing of both economies because of
coronavirus-related lockdowns has made it difficult to meet purchase
targets, but they don't expect the White House to walk away.
"Being able to sit down and communicate with each other is a good
thing," said a Chinese state think tank economist who has advised
Beijing on the trade deal, while cautioning there was little optimism
about further trade breakthroughs.
"It's hard for things to get even worse, while a best case scenario is
hard to achieve," said the economist, who spoke on condition of
anonymity. "How can flowers grow in such a bad environment?"
China is falling far short of a promised additional $77 billion in
purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured products, energy and services,
although it has ramped up purchases of U.S. farm goods including
soybeans and corn in recent weeks.
Imports of farm goods have been lower than 2017 levels, far behind the
50% increase needed to meet the 2020 target of $36.5 billion.
Beijing has bought only 5% of the energy products needed to meet the
Phase 1 first year goal of $25.3 billion.
How to close or explain away this gap will be the biggest challenge for
U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice
Premier Liu He during Saturday's video call.
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U.S. and Chinese flags are seen before Defense Secretary James
Mattis welcomes Chinese Minister of National Defense Gen. Wei Fenghe
to the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., November 9, 2018.
REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
BEST OF A BAD SITUATION
Trade experts said there is little political upside for U.S.
President Donald Trump to abandon the deal at this stage, which
would admit one of his biggest trade initiatives - already being
hammered by Democratic rival Joe Biden - had failed.
And even some Trump administration officials have been wary of
reigniting a tariff war that would roil markets and likely knock
down the S&P 500 <.SPX>, which traded close to record highs this
week.
"At the moment, the agreement serves the interests of the Trump
administration and Chinese leaders," said former acting USTR Miriam
Sapiro, now a managing director at communications firm Sard
Verbinnen, adding the requirements set in the deal were "never
realistic."
Trump, who has said the trade deal no longer means as much to him
because of China's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, has
expressed support for the deal this week, saying it should continue
and purchases should surge in 2021..
Stephen Vaughn, former USTR general counsel and a legal architect of
punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, said compliance with the deal
also benefits China by keeping its U.S. relationship from
deteriorating further. Now that its economy is recovering strongly
from the coronavirus pandemic, Beijing has little excuse not to ramp
up its purchases, he added.
"I don't see what China would gain from a failure to comply. My
guess is that will not happen," said Vaughn, a trade partner with
the King and Spalding law firm in Washington.
Claire Reade, a former USTR official and senior fellow at the Center
for Strategic and International Studies, said the agreement does
offer some incremental progress for U.S. firms seeking access to the
lucrative Chinese market.
"If the administration lets the Phase 1 deal die, it becomes
difficult to justify the pain caused by the lengthy trade war," she
wrote in an essay this week.
Nearly 90% of firms surveyed by the U.S.-China Business Council have
a positive view of the trade deal, but only 7% say its benefits
outweigh the costs of tariffs incurred along the way.
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Lawder in Washington, Yawen
Chen in Beijing. Additonal reporting by Sophie Yu in Beijing.
Editing by Heather Timmons and Lincoln Feast.)
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