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 Europe on Monday followed Britain and the United States in giving a
green light to a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and its partner
BioNTech which, like a similar shot from Moderna that has U.S.
emergency approval, demonstrated 95% efficacy in large trials.
The rapid approval of vaccines, just a year after the new
coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China, is testament to the huge
global effort made to tackle a pandemic that has killed over 1.7
million people, battered economies and upended life.
Scientists identified promising candidates after just weeks, not the
years normally needed, and millions of doses are already rolling out
of factories.
The progress comes, however, as many countries endure a bleak
winter, with infections surging, a new fast-spreading variant of the
virus in Britain and countries worldwide imposing new restrictions
on travel and everyday life.
A third vaccine from AstraZeneca and Oxford University has also been
shown to prevent COVID-19, though questions over the level of its
efficacy have left them with more work to do to win over some
regulators.
Still, the progress has been breathtaking.
"It's unprecedented that you have three potential vaccines developed
in a short period that are all promising," said Marcel Tanner,
president of the Swiss Academies of Arts and Sciences and a Swiss
COVID-19 Science Task Force member.
Inoculations have begun in Britain and the United States, with
shipments also going to Canada, Israel and Mexico. EU countries have
said shots will start days after Christmas, while Switzerland and
Qatar authorised Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine at the weekend.
Even so, BioNTech Chief Executive Ugur Sahin predicted on Tuesday
the "new normal" would see society dealing with sporadic COVID-19
outbreaks for the next decade, with multiple vaccines helping to
avoid business shutdowns and overloaded hospitals.
"This winter we will not have an impact on the infection numbers,
but we must have an impact so that the next winter will be the new
normal," Sahin said.
More than 100 other vaccine candidates are in the works, with trial
data on several expected soon.
Vaccine experts say multiple shots will be needed to provide enough
doses to inoculate the world, from rich to poor.
The International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and
Associations expects up to 10 vaccines to have won approval by
mid-2021, including from U.S. companies Johnson & Johnson and
Novavax and Germany's CureVac.
LIMITED SUPPLIES
Yet huge challenges remain, including ramping up production.
Pfizer expects to produce just 50 million shots for 2020, half its
original goal, covering 25 million people with its two-dose regimen.
Moderna has pledged 20 million U.S. inoculations this year, covering
10 million people.
Manufacturing will accelerate in 2021, with combined production
potentially topping 1.8 billion doses.
Other companies' trajectories are similar, but supplies won't come
fast enough for a world hungry for vaccines.
"There just aren't going to be enough vaccines to go around for a
long time ... maybe well into 2022," said Tom Frieden, former
director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC).
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There have also been early hiccups related to storing and delivering
Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine that must be kept at Antarctic
temperatures, as well as confusion over how many doses are actually
in a vial.
Allergic reactions in some UK and U.S. health care workers have also
emerged.
And though trials involving tens of thousands have shown the new
mRNA technology used by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna appears safe,
there is still plenty of hesitancy among people over actually
getting shots when their number is called.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates about 60% of people
need to get vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, meaning enough
people are protected for the disease to stop spreading.
Developing countries hoping to access vaccines via a global
WHO-backed scheme may have to wait, as wealthier countries have
reserved initial stocks.
So far, the West is focused largely on inoculating front-line
medical workers and older nursing home residents, where even in
limited volumes vaccines could make a difference for populations
hardest hit by the virus.
Eighty percent of the 300,000-plus U.S. COVID-19 deaths have been
people over 65, the CDC has said.
"This might take care of the COVID-19 healthcare crisis even if, due
to vaccine scepticism, no herd immunity is reached," said Christian
Muenz, University of Zurich professor of viral immunobiology.
HITS, MISSES
So far, Russia has inoculated 200,000-plus people with its
home-grown Sputnik-V shot, whose developers say it is 91.4%
effective. The country has also signed production deals, including
with India.
In China, where one Sinovac Biotech candidate and two from China
National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) are in late-stage trials,
health workers and border official have gotten shots, amid spending
to boost production.
Sinopharm's vaccine is registered in Bahrain and the United Arab
Emirates, with Egypt also getting deliveries, while Sinovac has
deals to supply Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia.
Other Chinese vaccines, including from CanSino Biologics, are also
in late-stage trials.
However, not all vaccine projects hit the bullseye.
Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline delayed their candidate after it failed
to protect older people.
An Australian project also flopped.
And questions still surround AstraZeneca's vaccine, whose efficacy
was 62% among patients who received two full doses.
Eric Topol, founder of California-based Scripps Research
Translational Institute, said the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna
vaccines would be tough acts to follow.
"We can't accept 62% when you can get 95%," Topol said. "It would
have been good enough if we didn't have anything else."
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