What's next for Democratic presidential candidates after New Hampshire
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[February 12, 2020]
By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) - If there's one thing Tuesday's
New Hampshire primary made clear, it's that Democrats are no closer to
agreeing on the right candidate to beat Republican President Donald
Trump in November.
The two leading candidates from Iowa's caucus, Senator Bernie Sanders
and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, stayed at the top
of the field. But Senator Amy Klobuchar surged to third, throwing the
viability of both Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe
Biden into question.
No candidate exceeded 30% of the vote - a muddled outcome that could end
up helping billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a moderate candidate who
wasn't even on the ballot.
Here's how the path ahead looks for each of the top candidates vying to
challenge Trump on Nov. 3:
BERNIE SANDERS
After his strong performances in mainly white Iowa and New Hampshire,
Sanders' claim that he is building a "multiracial, multigenerational,
people-driven movement" will be put to the test in more diverse Nevada
and South Carolina.
A Quinnipiac national poll released on Monday showed the Vermont senator
up 2 percentage points among black voters since January, reaching 19%
support and closing the gap on Biden, who fell 22 points to 27% after a
fourth-place finish in Iowa. Bloomberg surged to 22% among black voters
in the poll.
The 78-year-old candidate's hefty war chest is allowing him to air new
TV ads in states that vote in March, places where Bloomberg has
dominated the airwaves as part of his strategy focused on later-voting
states. Warren's poor showing on Tuesday should help Sanders consolidate
the party's liberal wing.
Some Democratic officials are concerned that Sanders' "democratic
socialist" label could damage down-ballot candidates in the fall.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar's combined vote total on Tuesday night far
surpassed what Sanders drew, suggesting voters may still prefer a
centrist message.
In a sign of the resistance he may face, Nevada's influential Culinary
Union Local 226 on Tuesday circulated a flyer to its members warning
that Sanders would "end" the labor group's popular healthcare offerings
if elected president.
PETE BUTTIGIEG
The 38-year-old former mayor's campaign is on an upswing after a narrow
win in Iowa and close second-place finish in New Hampshire, but far
tougher tests lay ahead in states with more diverse populations.
Buttigieg has struggled to overcome skepticism among African-American
voters, after members of the black community in South Bend complained he
ignored them amid the city's economic revitalization. That apparent
weakness has raised concerns about whether he can mobilize enough
support nationally from black voters to beat the Republican Trump.
The campaign says a strategy of reaching out to rural, independent areas
where people voted for both Trump and former President Barack Obama has
allowed Buttigieg to build a broad coalition and prove his unity message
during a divisive Trump presidency is viable.
In South Carolina, where roughly 30% of the population is black,
Buttigieg has remained in the single digits in opinion polls. His
campaign is hoping to leverage his status as a military veteran to earn
support in the state, which has a large number of veteran and active
duty service members.
Campaign officials say his team will rely on deep volunteer corps in a
broad swath of states with upcoming primaries, as opposed to hiring
expensive staff, and focus spending on ads that will help boost his name
recognition.
AMY KLOBUCHAR
Klobuchar was mostly an afterthought in a crowded field only weeks ago,
but she scored the biggest surprise in New Hampshire, coming in third
and easily beating Warren and Biden.
A commanding debate performance in New Hampshire on Friday night led to
increasingly large and enthusiastic crowds at the weekend. The campaign
reported raising $4 million between the debate and Tuesday morning, and
later in the day announced a new television advertising buy in Nevada.
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Supporters cheer as Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Senator
Bernie Sanders speaks at his New Hampshire primary night rally in
Manchester, N.H., U.S., February 11, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar
Klobuchar, 59, has run as an unapologetic centrist, highlighting her
success in winning in conservative districts in Minnesota and
dismissing ambitious liberal policy proposals like free college
tuition as unrealistic "bumper sticker slogans."
Biden's poor showings in the first two states could open the door
for her to emerge as the moderate standard-bearer. But she needs to
show she can move ahead of Buttigieg, and her support among black
voters is even more anemic than his is.
ELIZABETH WARREN
After a disappointing fourth-place showing in her neighboring state,
the Massachusetts senator needs a breakout moment to recapture the
momentum she had last fall.
Hours before the polls closed on Tuesday, Warren campaign manager
Roger Lau attempted to forestall a rush to judgment. He argued in a
memo to backers that she had built an operation that could
methodically collect delegates through March and warning against
focusing on "winner-take-all victories."
Warren failed to win a single delegate in New Hampshire, however,
and Klobuchar's rise appears to be cutting deeply into her base of
college-educated voters, particularly women, according to exit
polling by Edison Research.
Warren, 70, likely has the most extensive national operation aside
from Bloomberg, with more than 1,000 staffers in 30 states. If her
fundraising falters, she could face financial strains.
JOE BIDEN
Biden's decision to leave New Hampshire for South Carolina before
the vote count started rolling in says it all.
His campaign never expected to win in Iowa and New Hampshire. But it
also did not expect him to finish so poorly, casting a deep shadow
on his claim that he is the most "electable" Democrat and best
positioned to take on Trump.
His biggest problem has been the rise of Buttigieg and Klobuchar as
younger, moderate alternatives.
Biden, 77, hopes the shift to Nevada and South Carolina will give
him the reset he needs.
But there are other concerns. His weakness in the first two contests
could trigger an erosion of support among his strongest political
base: African-American voters. Biden also is unlikely to be able to
compete financially with the likes of Sanders, Buttigieg and
Bloomberg.
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg could emerge as one of the night's biggest winners even
though he didn't campaign in New Hampshire.
The former New York City mayor has been counting on an unsettled
race among the moderate candidates, including a weak showing from
once-time front-runner Biden, to present himself as the most viable
alternative to Sanders.
Bloomberg, 77, joined the race late and is not competing in the
first four nomination contests. Instead, his campaign has poured
hundreds of millions into the states that vote on March 3, known as
Super Tuesday.
National polls have shown Bloomberg steadily growing his share of
support in recent weeks, and he has built by far the biggest staff
among presidential candidates.
But Bloomberg also faces his own challenges, including an increasing
level of scrutiny on his record as mayor. On Tuesday, a recording
surfaced of him defending policing tactics that have
disproportionately ensnared blacks and Hispanics.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax, Amanda Becker, Sharon Bernstein, Trevor
Hunnicutt, Jason Lange, Simon Lewis, Michael Martina and James
Oliphant; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Sonya Hepinstall)
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