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 Indiana has issued more permits to build single-family homes
than Illinois for 10 years running, according to data from the U.S. Census
Bureau.
That streak is unprecedented for the Hoosier State.
With the exception of 2009-2018, Indiana had bested Illinois on this measure in
just one other year since 1960. That anomaly was in 1980, with a difference of
less than 1% in the number of permits issued for single-family housing between
the two states.
Now, Indiana is consistently floating more of those permits than Illinois. And
the gap is widening.
In 2009, Indiana issued 9,666 permits for single-family housing versus 7,844 in
Illinois, or 23% more.
 In 2018, Indiana issued 16,416 permits versus 10,041 in Illinois, or 63% more.
That’s the largest margin for Indiana over Illinois on record.
From 2009-2018, Indiana issued 30,508 more permits for single-family homes than
Illinois. For context, that’s more than entire states such as Virginia (21,427),
Washington (23,674), Colorado (26,134) and Tennessee (28,021) issued in 2018.
The Census Bureau uses the Building Permit Survey to estimate the number of
building permits issued for new, privately owned residential construction across
all 50 states, as well as the number of housing units associated with each
permit. While the number of permits issued is not a perfect measure of the
number of new homes started or completed, the three measures are highly
correlated.
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Shockingly, even when including permits for
multi-unit housing – not just those for single-family housing –
Indiana is competing with and even beating Illinois. Indiana has
bested Illinois in four of the last 10 years when including permits
for all types of housing. In 2018, the count was nearly identical,
with 21,510 permits in Illinois versus 21,480 in Indiana for housing
of all sizes. Prior to 2009, Indiana had never beat Illinois on this
measure, according to Census Bureau data.
Indiana contains just over half as many people as
Illinois, and the population of Indianapolis is just a third of
Chicago’s.
Sky-high property tax bills, two major income tax hikes over the
last decade and working-age population loss have caused demand for
Illinois homes – and therefore housing prices – to remain weak.
What’s driving those tax increases? Pension costs. Since 1996, total
property tax extensions in Illinois have increased 52% after
adjusting for inflation. This took Illinoisans’ property tax burden
from around the national average to among the highest of any state.
But less than 50 cents of every tax hike dollar actually went toward
services residents value. Instead, most of the increase went toward
pension costs and debt. Without constitutional pension reform, this
trend will continue.
The Census Bureau is scheduled to release final housing permit data
for 2019 on Jan. 27, 2020. Illinoisans will know then whether
Indiana extended its streak to an 11th year.
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