South
Africa 59% excess deaths imply hidden COVID-19 toll
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[July 23, 2020]
By Tim Cocks
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa
witnessed some 17,000 extra deaths from natural causes or 59% more than
would normally be expected between early May and mid-July, scientists
said, suggesting many more people are dying of COVID-19 than shown in
official figures.
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New data by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC),
released overnight, showed that just in the week to July 14 - the
latest figures available - there was an excess of 5,022 deaths by
natural causes, about half more than usual.
Africa's most industrialised nation is in the middle of a runaway
epidemic of the coronavirus, with cases increasing by more than
10,000 day and the current total just shy of 400,000. But its
recorded death toll has so far been low, at 5,940 deaths or less
than 1.5 percent of cases.
Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the government-funded
research council, said the figures revealed "a huge discrepancy"
between the confirmed COVID-19 death toll and the number of excess
natural deaths.
President Cyril Ramaphosa implemented a tough lockdown at the end of
March, shutting shops, requiring people to stay at home and sending
the army on to the streets to enforce it back when South Africa had
only 400 recorded cases.
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But a surge in poverty and unemployment in a country that already had too much
of both spurred the government to lift restrictions well before the peak of
infections.
The council's data showed that of the 17,090 extra deaths, 11,175 were people
over the age of 60, a telltale sign of COVID-19, which is overwhelmingly more
deadly for older people.
Ramaphosa said this month that scientists had predicted up to 50,000 deaths in
South Africa, a figure which seems possible based on Thursday's findings by the
council.
(Reporting by Tim Cocks; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)
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