Ahead of U.S. election, China braces for rocky ride, potential change
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[July 24, 2020]
By Keith Zhai, Michael Martina and Tony Munroe
(Reuters) - With bilateral relations in
free-fall, Beijing is bracing for more turbulence in the run-up to the
U.S. election in November, and the possibility that a Joe Biden
presidency presents an opportunity to avoid a deeper conflict.
Washington's demand this week that China shut its Houston consulate in
72 hours infuriated Beijing and forced a retaliatory order to close the
U.S. consulate in Chengdu.
As usual, China did not directly criticize President Donald Trump, who
often speaks of his personal friendship with President Xi Jinping, but
in caustic editorials state media portrayed the move as an election
gambit.
Some Chinese government and military hawks see four more years of Trump
as an opportunity to accelerate China's ascent. Many in China have
gained confidence in its standing as they watch his tumultuous
presidency, including its handling of Covid-19.
But along with exasperation over Trump's unpredictability and penchant
for tariffs, and wariness of Washington's hostility on multiple fronts,
is rising worry over the risk of sharper confrontation, according to six
Chinese officials and people with ties to the leadership.
Frequent criticism of "Communist" China and its ruling Communist Party -
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used the word 27 times in a speech on
Thursday that called a more assertive approach to China the "mission of
our time" - also rankles in Beijing.
Caught off guard by Trump's 2016 victory, China dispatched government
think tanks to make an earlier start preparing reports on the election
and U.S. public sentiment, with a focus on Democratic challenger Biden
and his policies, sources familiar with the matter said.
"There are no illusions about restoring relations back to the good old
days, but a new president at least provides a chance to reset
relations," said one Chinese official, declining to be identified given
the sensitivity of the matter."After all, you can't get a worse
relationship than the current one," he said.
DEFAULT STANCE
The Trump administration has said its harder line on China is justified
by what Pompeo and others have described as a more authoritarian turn by
Beijing, the theft of intellectual property and its military ambitions
in the South China Sea and beyond.
Being tough on China is now the bipartisan default stance in the United
States, and a Biden administration is expected to be more likely to join
with allies in confronting Beijing, and to take a tougher line on human
rights.
But a Biden presidency could be more inclined toward engagement - from a
new "position of American strength", as campaign insiders put it, amid
renewed investment in U.S. competitiveness, innovation and
infrastructure.
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President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with
China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in
Beijing, China, November 9, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo
"The Chinese seem to be under no illusions that a Biden victory
would reverse Washington's view of China, but will likely make an
overture for dialogue with a new administration," said Daniel Russel,
the top diplomat for East Asia under President Barack Obama and
early in the Trump administration.
Russel has no formal role in the Biden campaign but is close to the
candidate's foreign policy advisers.
Both the Biden and Trump campaigns say China is rooting for the
other.
Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 Communications Director, said China is
undoubtedly pulling for Biden. "He has a record of appeasing them
and advancing their interests throughout his 47 years in
Washington," Murtaugh told Reuters. Andrew Bates, a Biden campaign
spokesman, said China has had a free-for-all under Trump, calling
him "the weakest president in American history with respect to
China."
With bilateral ties slumping, some officials and analysts in Beijing
said China's broad approach over coming months will be to try to
manage tensions with Washington and retaliate only when
necessary.That teeth-gritting has been reflected in relatively muted
responses to recent U.S. moves, such as its declaration that
Beijing's South China Sea claims are illegal. Beijing's move to shut
the Chengdu consulate was proportionate, and China has continued to
urge Washington to reconsider the Houston ouster.
However, Beijing is unlikely to make any significant overtures for
dialogue, given what it sees as the futility of engagement in a
campaign season when anti-China sentiment is running high.
"China is angry with Trump for his criticism of China and for his
action of imposing sanctions on China," said Shi Yinhong, an adviser
to China's cabinet and a professor at Beijing's Renmin University.
"Moreover, the Chinese sense that his political standing at home
seems to have been shaken, so his value has dropped."
(Reporting by Keith Zhai in Singapore, Tony Munroe and Yew Lun Tian
in Beijing, and Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom in Washington;
Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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