A triple whammy of crises tests Trump's support ahead of November's
election
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[June 04, 2020]
By James Oliphant and Chris Kahn
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Battered by crisis
after crisis, President Donald Trump appears to be in political peril as
never before.
Since taking office in 2017, Trump has weathered storm after storm,
always emerging with a fighting chance at being re-elected. After he
survived an impeachment trial that saw him acquitted by the
Republican-led Senate on Feb. 5, things looked up.
Now Trump's Teflon shield is being put to an acid test as he faces a
triple whammy - the biggest public health crisis in a century, the worst
economic downturn in generations and the largest civil unrest since the
1960s.
This week, Trump’s calls for a crackdown https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-pentagon/u-s-defense-chief-opposes-deploying-troops-to-quell-protests-despite-trump-threats-idUSKBN23A2BD
on nationwide protests over police brutality have drawn rebukes from
civil rights advocates, religious leaders, opposition Democrats and some
fellow Republicans.
Even former Republican president George W Bush felt the need to issue a
statement that the protesters be heard
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-bush/former-president-bush-contrasting-trump-approach-says-protesters-should-be-heard-idUSKBN239389.
Perhaps of more concern to Trump and his re-election campaign, however,
is that almost every opinion poll points to clear signs of erosion of
his electoral support since the novel coronavirus pandemic, which has
taken almost 109,000 American lives since February and led to 40 million
jobless claims.
At the same time, his Democratic opponent in the Nov. 3 election, Joe
Biden, has re-emerged in public from a coronavirus lockdown, with a
message of unity and civic healing that stands in marked contrast
to Trump’s talk of “thugs” and “lowlifes” and “law and order.”
So far, Trump's aggressive tone does not seem to be matching the moment.
An opinion poll by Reuters/Ipsos this week showed that a bipartisan
majority of Americans, including twice as many independents, sympathize
with protesters and disapprove of Trump’s bellicose response.
REFRAME DEBATE
Republicans say he has time to turn things around, particularly if the
economy begins to rebound. And, they note, if the protests persist and
become unruly, voters may become more responsive to Trump’s hardline
approach.
“As awful as this is, it does allow Trump the opportunity to reframe the
debate the way he wants it to be – law and order versus chaos,” said
Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee official and frequent
Trump critic. “That is part of the conversation that he wants.”
A source close to the Trump campaign said the protests have taken
attention away from the government's often-criticized handling of the
pandemic. And Trump could ultimately benefit if states continue to
re-open their economies and job numbers improve in the fall, said the
source, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly.
Right now, though, the numbers are against him.
More than 55% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of
the protests, including 40% who “strongly” disapproved, while just
one-third said they approved - lower than his overall job approval of
39%, the poll showed.
A separate Reuters poll this week showed Biden’s lead over Trump among
registered voters expanded to 10 percentage points - the biggest margin
since the former vice president became his party’s presumptive nominee
in early April.
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President Donald Trump makes an announcement about U.S. trade
relations with China and Hong Kong in the Rose Garden of the White
House in Washington, U.S., May 29, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File
Photo
This week, for the first time since Biden became the likely nominee,
betting markets favored him to beat Trump in November. Both Smarkets,
based in the U.K. and PredictIT, based in New Zealand, had
previously said the odds were with Trump.
With five months to go until the election, there's plenty of time
for those odds to change.
Tim Murtaugh, spokesman for the Trump campaign, said the campaign's
internal data shows the president is "running strong" with Biden in
battleground states. "Everyone knows public polling is notoriously
wrong about President Trump," he said.
LOSING GROUND
An analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling since March shows that Trump’s
approval, which has remained remarkably consistent over more than
three years, has slipped among some demographic groups of voters who
will be crucial in deciding the election.
An increasing number of Americans who make more than $100,000 a
year, those between the ages of 35 and 54 years old and white women
with college degrees said they were considering Biden.
Trump’s approval among those earning six-figure salaries dropped 15
percentage points between March and May while Biden's lead with that
group expanded by 9 points.
College-educated white women, meanwhile, support Biden over Trump by
a 23-point margin, up from 19 points in March. Hillary Clinton, the
Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, won this group by seven
points. They helped power Democrats to large gains in 2018’s
congressional elections.
Biden's 10-point lead in the head-to-head poll matched two other
national polls by Monmouth University and The Washington Post and
ABC News. At this point in 2016, Clinton led Trump generally by less
than five points.
Trump's upset victory then still gives his supporters hope he can do
it again.
“I still think he gets re-elected,” said Craig Robinson, a former
political director of the Iowa Republican Party. “And I know what
all the polls say.”
Robinson pointed to the U.S. stock market being up almost 40% since
the coronavirus lockdowns in March as an indicator that “things are
not as bad as we thought.”
David Wasserman, an elections analyst with The Cook Report, noted
that Trump’s campaign has not been able to fully unleash its attacks
on Biden and his record while dealing with the pandemic and
protests. That could change this summer.
In addition, because of the makeup of the Electoral College, which
dictates the outcome of the election and currently gives Republicans
a structural advantage, Wasserman said Biden could be up by as much
as 5% in national polls in November and still lose to Trump.
“This lead is not safe,” Wasserman said.
(Reporting by James Oliphant and Chris Kahn; Editing by Soyoung Kim
and Grant McCool)
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