LDN - Business

Dollar edges up; New Zealand and Aussie dollars gain

[June 08, 2020] By Elizabeth Howcroft

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar edged up from recent two-and-a-half-month lows on Monday while the New Zealand dollar strengthened to its highest in nearly four months after New Zealand said it had stopped transmission of the coronavirus within the country.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden said on Monday that it would lift all virus-containment measures apart from border controls, making it one of the first countries to do so.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. dollar in early London trading, hitting a high of 0.6540, its strongest since Jan. 29 <NZD=D3>. The Australian dollar also rose, close to five-month highs at 0.6979 <AUD=D3>.

But hopes for an economic recovery were less clear elsewhere. Better-than-expected U.S. employment data raised expectations for a quicker global economic revival on Friday, but in Europe on Monday the rally in stocks paused as investors turned cautious again.

German industrial output plunged the most on record in April as the coronavirus pandemic forced companies in Europe's largest economy to scale back production.

The euro was flat, having slipped from recent highs, at $1.1286 <EUR=EBS>. It reached a three-month high of $1.1384 last week after the European Central Bank announced that it was expanding its stimulus programme.

"EUR/USD may be due some consolidation after a very strong rally, but we suspect the 1.1230/40 area offers good support now before EUR/USD advances to the 1.15/16 area," ING strategists wrote in a note to clients.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament at 1345 GMT.

Investors are now waiting for more information about a European Union recovery fund proposed last month - a 750 billion-euro plan to prop up European economies hammered by the coronavirus pandemic.

(Graphic: Euro versus dollar - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/mkt/yxmpjkqmovr/Euro.png)

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A U.S. Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken May 26, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Euro long bets continued to rise in the week to June 2, with 81,240 in net long contracts, according to weekly futures data.

At 1000 GMT, the dollar index was at 96.88, having gained overnight, fallen in early London trading, then started gaining again from around 0720 GMT <=USD>.

"The Fed’s strong commitment to maintain loose policy helped to dampen the US dollar’s positive reaction to the stronger NFP report," Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, wrote in a note to clients.

But Hardman added that his models signalled there was a risk of the dollar correcting higher, temporarily, after having been heavily oversold.

The dollar lost out to the safe-haven Japanese yen, which rose to 109.43 at 1000 GMT <JPY=EBS>. This was a reversal of recent downward pressure on the yen, which fell against the dollar every day last week as risk appetite improved.

The U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet this week. They will need to balance signs that the economic fallout from the virus is past its worst with the evidence that the virus itself is not yet under control.

"It is way too soon for the Fed to seriously consider reining in their aggressive policy easing in response to the economic recovery," wrote MUFG's Hardman.

Major oil producers agreed to extend a deal on output cuts to the end of July as China's crude imports hit an all-time high in May. The Norwegian crown held close to three-month highs against the dollar and euro <NOK=D3> <EURNOK=D3> as oil prices climbed.

(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, editing by Larry King)

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