The
Geneva-based body forecast in April that global trade in goods
would fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020, numbers that the WTO
chief described as "ugly", before rebounding by 21-24% in 2021.
The WTO did not set new figures on Tuesday, but said rapid
responses by governments meant its pessimistic scenario for this
year was unlikely.
The volume of merchandise trade in fact shrank by 3% in the
first quarter, the WTO said, and initial estimates pointed to a
year-on-year decline of 18.5% for the second quarter.
"The fall in trade we are now seeing is historically large – in
fact, it would be the steepest on record. But there is an
important silver lining here: it could have been much worse,"
said WTO director‑general Roberto Azevedo.
The WTO said governments had reacted quicker than in the
2008-2009 crisis and income support had encouraged consumers to
keep spending. Some sectors such as automobiles had fallen
sharply, but others such as electronics had held up well.
If trade were to grow by 2.5% per quarter for the rest of the
year, the more optimistic projection of minus 13% could be met,
though that would still be worse than at the height of the
financial crisis in 2009, when trade dropped by 12.5%.
However, the WTO said weaker-than-expected growth, wider trade
restrictions and a possible second wave of infections could see
a 2021 rebound falling short.
Trade could then recover only by about 5%, leaving it well short
of the pre-pandemic trend. Monetary, fiscal and trade choices
will play a significant role, the WTO said.
(Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop; Editing by Emma Farge and
Gareth Jones)
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