|
The
former vice president's appeal to broad and diverse segments of
Democratic voters cemented his victories over rival Bernie
Sanders, according to exit polls and results.
In some cases, Biden outperformed 2016 Democratic presidential
nominee Hillary Clinton with key groups, suggesting that
Sanders’ path to the nomination has narrowed.
Here are some explanations for Biden's success on Tuesday:
A GENDER GAP
Simply put, exit polls show Sanders has a woman problem.
As he did on Super Tuesday, Biden easily outpaced Sanders with
female voters, part of the lifeblood of the Democratic Party. In
Michigan, while Biden and Sanders were neck-and-neck among male
voters, Biden dominated his opponent among women, according to
the Edison Research exit polls.
In Michigan, Biden held about a 20-point advantage with all
women. It bloomed to 30 points in Missouri. Already strong with
black female voters, Biden showed appeal to white female voters
as well, including those with and without a college degree,
beating Sanders by double digits with both groups in those
states.
In Michigan, Biden performed better among female voters against
Sanders than Clinton had. In 2016, Clinton won over female
voters by seven percentage points, according to exit polls. On
Tuesday, polls showed Biden with 59% of that vote and Sanders
garnering 36%.
Sanders may have been damaged by the perception that his base of
support is largely young males who express themselves
aggressively online, said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist
who worked for Clinton in 2016.
"There's been a lot of vitriol and misogyny," he said. "I think
that probably hasn't helped him."
Sanders has disavowed his most abusive online supporters while
defending the majority of his backers.
“We have over 10.6 million people on Twitter, and 99.9 percent
of them are decent human beings,” Sanders said at a recent
debate.
On the campaign trail, female voters voiced anger over Sanders'
protracted 2016 primary battle against Clinton, which they felt
damaged her and the Democratic Party.
Sanders has largely shrugged off such criticism. "I don’t want
to relive 2016. We’re in 2020 now," he said this week on Fox
News Channel.
WORKING-CLASS BLUES
Sanders’ big advantage over Biden in Michigan and elsewhere was
supposed to be with white, working-class voters – particularly
men - who were drawn to his anti-corporate rhetoric and his call
for universal healthcare.
But in Michigan, a heavy manufacturing state, Biden was evenly
matched with Sanders among white men without a college degree,
exit polls said. In 2016, Sanders hammered Clinton in that
category, 57% to 42%.
Biden also beat out Sanders among union households, after
Sanders had beaten Clinton among those voters four years ago.
Biden made his support of the 2009 auto bailout that saved jobs
in Michigan a central part of his pitch.
Michael Ceraso, who worked for the Sanders campaign in 2016,
said Sanders had become a less potent candidate this time
around.
"His message doesn't quite resonate this cycle in the same way
it did before," Ceraso said. "This election is about heart over
head. Biden is the heart. Voters feel connected to him in a way
that Clinton couldn't do."
SUBURBAN SURGE
In Michigan, Biden did especially well as compared to Clinton in
the suburban counties surrounding Detroit, considered to be key
battlegrounds in the general election against the Republican
Trump.
The former vice president had double-digit leads over Sanders in
Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties. Macomb voted for Trump over
Clinton in the general election.
Suburban voters were key to Democratic efforts to win back
moderate districts and seize control of the House of
Representatives in 2018.
Projected turnout in Michigan was 1.7 million, up from 1.2
million in the 2016 primary, which could be good news for Biden
in a matchup against Trump.
Trump's win over Clinton in Michigan in 2016 by just over 10,000
votes helped deliver his White House victory.
While Sanders has boasted that he could persuade more young
voters and working class voters to show up at the polls, it has
been Biden who has seen a wave of new support from suburbanites,
particularly women.
"The surge has been with the center-left of the party," rather
than among the progressive wing, Payne said.
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
As the spread of the new coronavirus has become a front-burner
issue on the campaign trail, Biden seems to be the candidate who
has benefited the most.
In Washington state, which also held a primary on Tuesday and is
the U.S. epicenter of the threat, Biden was the clear choice
among voters who said they were concerned about the virus. Among
those who described themselves as “very concerned,” Biden, who
spent 35 years in government as a senator and vice president,
held an advantage of 41% to 25% over Sanders.
In Michigan, when voters were asked which candidate they trusted
more to handle a crisis, about half the voters surveyed picked
Biden, while 32% chose Sanders.
UNITING THE COUNTRY
Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, continued to
struggle with voters outside his ideological lane.
According to exit polls, only voters who described themselves as
“very liberal” preferred Sanders. Voters who considered
themselves "somewhat liberal" or moderate backed Biden in large
numbers. In Missouri, 62% who said they are “somewhat liberal”
supported Biden, and 72% of moderates supported Biden compared
to just 19% for Sanders.
For voters whose top priority is to “unite the country” – a
persistent Biden campaign theme – he was the stark favorite. In
Michigan and Missouri, more than 80% said Biden was the best
hope to bring people together. In Washington, it was 54%, but
Sanders drew a measly 15%.
(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and
Howard Goller)
[© 2020 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2020 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.
|
|
