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 Around two-thirds of global cases of the coronavirus have been
recorded in China's central Hubei province, where the virus first
emerged in December. But in recent weeks the vast majority of new
cases have been outside China.
Chinese authorities credit strict measures they have taken,
including placing Hubei under near total lockdown, with preventing
big outbreaks in other cities, and say other countries should learn
from their efforts.
"Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China,"
said Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission. "The
increase of new cases is falling."
Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government's senior medical adviser, said
at a news conference on Thursday that as long as countries take the
outbreak seriously and are prepared to take firm measures, it could
be over worldwide in a matter of months.
"My advice is calling for all countries to follow WHO instructions
and intervene on a national scale," he said. "If all countries could
get mobilized, it could be over by June."
Zhong, an 83-year-old epidemiologist renowned for helping combat the
SARS outbreak in 2003, said viruses in the same family typically
become less active in warm months, which could help slow the spread.
"My estimate of June is based on scenarios that all countries take
positive measures. But if some countries do not treat the
infectiousness and harmfulness seriously, and intervene strongly, it
would last longer."
BUSINESSES REOPEN
With the marked slowdown of the spread of the virus in China, more
businesses have reopened, with authorities cautiously easing strict
containment measures.
Hubei province announced on Thursday a further loosening of travel
restrictions and will also allow some industries to resume
production in two of its cities and two counties.
Hubei's economy, driven by manufacturing and trade, including a
sizable auto sector in the provincial capital Wuhan, had been
virtually shuttered since Jan. 23.
While the virus is spreading quickly globally, its progress in China
has slowed markedly in the past seven days. In all, 15 new cases
were recorded in mainland China on Wednesday, down from 24 the day
before. Seven of the new cases were outside Hubei, including six
imported from abroad.
While only 85 of the cases in China have come from abroad, the
rising number of such incidences has prompted authorities to shift
their focus on containing the risk of imported cases.
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The total number of cases recorded in mainland China was 80,793. As of Tuesday,
62,793 people had recovered and been discharged from hospital, or nearly 80% of
the infections.
As of the end of Wednesday, the death toll in mainland China had reached 3,169,
up by 11 from the previous day. Hubei accounted for 10 of the new deaths,
including seven in Wuhan.
The ruling Communist Party newspaper, the People's Daily, warned in an editorial
that while the number of new virus cases in China was falling, conditions were
still difficult and there were risks of more outbreaks.
'ENORMOUS STRAIN'
China is focusing on restarting factories and businesses hit by the containment
policies. Factory activity plunged to its worst level on record in February, and
while more businesses have reopened in recent weeks as containment measures have
been eased, analysts do not expect activity to return to normal until April.
Airlines have been hit particularly hard. China's airlines reported total losses
of 20.96 billion yuan ($3 billion) in February. The total number of airline
passengers fell 84.5% year-on-year last month, China's aviation regulator said.
Local governments must do their utmost to ensure people return to work as soon
as possible, the official China Daily said in an editorial.
Many businesses are still facing labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions,
it said.
"The epidemic control measures have put an enormous strain on China's
enterprises, especially the small and medium-sized ones in the service sector,"
it said. "Any further delay in their return to normal operations will entail
widespread bankruptcies and job losses, which will threaten social stability."
The Hubei government on Wednesday said Wuhan would allow some key industries to
resume work.
On Thursday, it said containment measures would be relaxed in two other cities
in the province - Qianjian and Shishou - and in the counties of Gongan and Zhuxi.
(Reporting by Ryan Woo, Se Young Lee, Lusha Zhang, Stella Qiu, David Stanway,
Cate Cadell, Gao Liangping, Engen Tham, Judy Hua and Kevin Yao; Editing by
Michael Perry, Robert Birsel)
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