Coronavirus fears spark surge in a volatility index
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[March 23, 2020] By
Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A product that traders
use to profit from surges in volatility has soared as coronavirus fears
ravaged stocks, prompting concern about a plunge if the market's wild
swings subside.
The VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN <TVIX.O> started the year
at just short of $49 a share and shot as high as $1,000 a share as
markets plunged and volatility exploded. The exchange-traded product (ETP),
issued by Credit Suisse, last traded at $607.56.
TVIX trades like a stock and is tied to the movements of derivatives
linked to the Cboe Volatility Index <.VIX>, known as Wall Street's "fear
gauge" because it tends to rise when the market falls.
Traders looking to counterbalance stock declines have piled in,
ballooning the fund's assets to $6 billion from just over $700 million
at the start of 2020 - a reflection of how expectations of volatility
shot higher as coronavirus fears began roiling a placid stock market
last month.
But with the VIX near its highest level since the financial crisis, an
abrupt drop in volatility could be costly for investors, especially
those purchasing the product near recent levels.
"If you haven't ever implemented volatility instruments in your
portfolio, it's best to avoid them. It's a land of wolves right now,"
said Steven Place, founder of InvestingWithOptions in Destin, Florida.
The fund's prospectus warns that a drop in its calculated value to or
below 20% that of the prior day's could trigger a liquidation of the
note.
The drop in volatility needed to trigger that sort of move would have to
be substantial - on par with the sudden decline that occurred after
volatility shot higher in the October 1987 Black Monday stock market
crash only to subside shortly after, said Vance Harwood, who runs the
investment website Six Figure Investing and is a consultant focused on
volatility-linked products.
[to top of second column] |
A trader wears a mask as he works on the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) as the building prepares to close indefinitely due
to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in New York, U.S.,
March 20, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
While such a sudden drop may be unlikely, massive shifts in volatility have
claimed other popular products linked to the VIX in recent years.
A Credit Suisse product for investors looking to benefit from continued low
volatility met a spectacular demise in 2018, when a sharp market decline caused
the VIX to spike. The fund, which was known as XIV, was one of the casualties in
the "short-vol" trade investors had piled into to profit from stable markets.
Even a relatively moderate fall in volatility could lead to deep losses for TVIX
investors that had bought near the highs. On Friday, the TVIX shares traded as
high as $685 and as low as $440.
Meanwhile, a continued rise in volatility would force Credit Suisse or its
affiliates to buy increasing amounts of derivatives to adjust the fund's
exposure to rising volatility. That could, in theory, exacerbate an upward move
in the VIX if the purchases were far in excess of the fund's trading volume,
investors said.
"TVIX has become large enough where it can directly affect the market to the
point where it can be a positive feedback loop," Place said.
So far, that has not happened, said Harwood, whose analysis of the VIX futures
market shows little evidence so far of any distortion in the VIX.
(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Will Dunham)
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