Kashkari, asked what the jobs report might show during an
interview on NBC's Today Show, said the reported unemployment
rate could be as high as 17%, but the true unemployment rate may
be as high as 23%. "That bad report tomorrow is actually going
to understate how bad the damage has been," he said.
Despite the stark forecast, Kashkari said he was hopeful
policymakers could avoid a depression scenario for the U.S.
economy after learning lessons from the Great Depression of the
1930s.
"The Federal Reserve is acting aggressively, we will continue to
act aggressively," he said.
Still, Kashkari said the economic rebound was likely to be
"gradual" until there was the development of a vaccine or
therapy to treat the virus.
It could be a while before consumers feel comfortable sitting in
a full movie theater or a crowded restaurant, he said, and many
restaurants may struggle to make ends meet if they are only
serving half as many customers. "Unfortunately, the recovery
looks like it is going to be slow," he said.
Authorities also need to be careful with plans to reopen the
economy so they can avoid a flare up of new cases, Kashkari
said.
"The virus is still spreading throughout much of the country,"
he said. "We have to continue to be very measured and not reopen
too quickly because we may pay the price for that."
(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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