How poor regions lose out because of U.S. census undercounts
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[October 13, 2020]
By Nick Brown
ESPANOLA, New Mexico (Reuters) - Getting an
accurate count of America’s population has proven difficult in the 2020
Census as the coronavirus pandemic has hampered voluntary responses and
forced officials to scale back door-knocking efforts.
The administration of President Donald Trump has placed other hurdles on
the path to an accurate count. Its attempt to add a question about
citizenship to the census earlier this year likely discouraged
undocumented immigrants from filling out the survey, even though the
administration's effort failed, demographics experts say. Local
officials nationwide worry about the impact of undercounts on their
communities.
"This is going to be the worst response rate we’ve ever had," said
Lauren Reichelt, Health and Human Services Director for Rio Arriba
County, New Mexico.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2020/Oct/13/images/ads/current/graue_sda_2016.png)
Rio Arriba is typical of other regions across the United States that are
hardest to count - and have the most to lose from an undercount. It's
poor, rural and home to many undocumented immigrants. Low population
tallies can rob such areas of badly needed federal dollars for
affordable housing and child care, for instance, or resources to fight
America’s opioid epidemic, according to local officials in some of the
most undercounted regions in the last census, taken in 2010.
"Persistent undercounting in communities that would benefit most from
targeted public and private investment makes it harder to address the
very barriers that contribute to a less accurate census," said Terri Ann
Lowenthal, a consultant on census and statistical issues and former
congressional staffer overseeing census matters.
The Census Bureau and the White House declined to comment for this
story.
The Bureau is nearing the end of the 2020 edition of the decennial
count, which will guide the allocation of $1.5 trillion a year in
federal aid. The census is also a linchpin of American democracy because
the population counts are used to determine the number of Congressional
representatives assigned to a state and to draw maps of electoral
districts.
Some of the hardest-to-count regions in the last census might be even
harder to survey this year as the country reels from the coronavirus
pandemic, according to a Reuters analysis of Census data. They include
border areas in Texas, the lowlands of Mississippi and the northern
plains of New Mexico.
'I ALWAYS RELAPSE'
Rio Arriba officials estimated they were undercounted by 4% in 2010,
after only 42% of households mailed back their census forms voluntarily.
That compared to 66.5% of households that responded by mail nationally,
according to Census data.
The bureau sent door-knockers to get more responses, but still had to
use a Census process called imputation to estimate residency for 9.6% of
Rio Arriba's count, a far larger proportion than the national average.
Officials in the county say an accurate count would have helped narrow
funding gaps that leave it without enough medicine, detox clinics,
housing and other support to fight one of the community's biggest
problems: an opioid epidemic that kills people at a rate more than four
times the U.S. average, according to government data.
The current U.S. Census shows no signs of reversing the trend. Rio
Arriba’s voluntary response rate is running at 32%, 10 points below its
2010 rate and less than half the overall U.S. rate of 67%.
It is impossible to know exactly how much funding is lost due to an
undercount, says George Washington University professor Andrew Reamer,
the nation’s foremost expert on the relationship between the census and
federal spending. That would require knowing exactly how many people
were missed and which government programs would have served them.
Officials in Rio Arriba agree they were entitled to more federal funds
for programs to address a local opioid crisis.
“A lot of the funding for my department is federal, so we end up being
entitled to a lot less than we should when there’s an undercount,” said
Reichelt.
The $3.4 million her department received in 2020 to fight addiction is
spread thin, and even a relatively modest increase could make a big
difference. The county can’t afford to build a detox center, and
patients wait for weeks to get suboxone, a drug that reduces withdrawal
symptoms, Reichelt said.
The Rio Arriba County Housing Authority, meanwhile, manages 54 public
housing units, and assists another 25 families with rent vouchers. But
the wait lists can be as long as five years, according to Reichelt.
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![](../images/101320pics/news_c5.jpg)
Maria, last name withheld, 47, poses for a photo in her home in
Pueblo De Palmas, a town that is likely to be undercounted in the
census, in Hidalgo County, Texas, U.S. December 10, 2019.
REUTERS/Veronica G. Cardenas
![](../images/ads/current/fitzpatrick_lda_SPONSOR_2017.png)
Joey Garcia, a 32-year-old heroin addict who has been in and out of
jail on drug charges, said he has struggled to get straight while on
waiting lists for both subsidized housing and suboxone treatment.
“Somehow,” Garcia said, “I always relapse.”
NERVOUS TO ANSWER
The Rio Grande Valley in south Texas is a political netherworld.
North of the border but south of immigration checkpoints, its four
counties - Hidalgo, Cameron, Starr and Willacy - include informal
communities known as colonias, often heavily populated with
undocumented immigrants.
In Hidalgo, officials estimate they were undercounted by at least
10% in 2010, after just 56% of the population responded voluntarily.
The Census Bureau estimated a more modest 5.4% undercount.
Either way, the undercounts reduced funding to the area’s Head Start
and Low Income Heating and Energy Assistance (LIHEAP) programs,
which cover only a fraction of eligible residents.
In Pueblo de Palmas, a colonia in Hidalgo County, Cristina, 35,
qualifies for government-funded Head Start childcare for her four
children, but only one was admitted. She asked that only her first
name be used because she is an undocumented immigrant.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2020/Oct/13/images/ads/current/collision_lda_PPP_2018.png)
Both LIHEAP and Head Start are underfunded in the county. The former
has a budget of $6 million, enough to serve 3-4% of qualifying
households, says Jaime Longoria, the region’s community services
director.
Head Start, which relies on population data to decide where to
expand programs, can serve 3,700 kids in Hidalgo out of 22,000 who
qualify, said Teresa Flores, the local Head Start director. An
accurate count would help cover some of that gap, she said.
Cristina and her neighbor, Maria - also undocumented - both said
they couldn't remember filling out a census form in 2010 and that
they were afraid to do so this year.
“I’m nervous someone will come to my house and take me away,” Maria
said.
'WE’RE BROKE'
In central Mississippi, voluntary participation in the 2010 census
ranged between 45% and 60%. The rate in these areas so far this year
is similar, according to Census data.
Lower funding from census undercounts has affected a crucial
childcare program for low-income mothers in the nation's poorest
state, program officials said.
More than 112,000 Mississippi families are poor enough to qualify,
but the program only has enough money to grant 20,000 to 25,000
vouchers, said Carol Burnett, who runs the nonprofit Mississippi Low
Income Childcare Initiative.
Mississippi’s allotment under the Child Care and Development Block
Grant that funds the program was $91.8 million in fiscal year 2019.
An extra 1% of that total statewide - about $918,000 - could
potentially serve hundreds more parents across the state, Burnett
said, as the vouchers cover around $5,700 a year in expenses.
Tanisha Womack, 35, runs three daycare centers in Simpson and Smith
counties, two of several counties in Mississippi that were among the
hardest to count nationwide in 2010, according to the Reuters data.
Womack is certified to care for 152 children, but has just 72
children enrolled, she said, because many qualifying parents have
been denied vouchers.
“We’re broke,” Womack said.
(Reporting by Nick Brown; Additional reporting by Grant Smith;
Editing by Richard Valdmanis and Brian Thevenot)
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