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The
bank forecast a return of 28% over a 12-month period on the
S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), with a 17.9% return
for precious metals, 42.6% for energy, 5.5% for industrial
metals and a negative return of 0.8% for agriculture.
Markets are now increasingly concerned about the return of
inflation, the Wall Street bank said.
Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in developed market
economies continue to drive interest rates lower and create
demand for hedging the tail risks of inflation, lifting demand
for precious metals, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Goldman forecast gold prices <XAU=> at an average of $1,836 per
ounce in 2020 and $2,300 per ounce in 2021, and expects silver
prices <XAG=> to be at around $22 per ounce in 2020 and $30 per
ounce next year.
Spot gold was trading at $1,915.04 per ounce by 0527 GMT, while
silver was at $24.85 per ounce.
Gold, widely viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency
debasement, has gained 26% this year, benefiting from
unprecedented global stimulus and near-zero interest rates.
Non-energy commodities could see an "immediate upside" as the
market balances tighten ahead of expectations on strong demand
from China and weather-driven risks, the Goldman Sachs analysts
said.
The bank maintained a "neutral" view on commodities in the near
term and "overweight" in the medium term.
(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Amy Caren
Daniel)
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