Analysis: Tax hikes may help Russian oil majors stomach OPEC output
curbs
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[October 26, 2020] By
Vladimir Soldatkin and Olesya Astakhova
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Higher taxes imposed on
Russia's energy sector could make prolonged output curbs by OPEC and
allied producers easier to stomach for Moscow's energy majors.
The new system of taxes, approved by President Vladimir Putin earlier
this month to help Russia weather the economic fallout from the COVID-19
pandemic, make it more expensive for energy companies to boost
production from mature oil fields and produce more heavy crude.
That could make Russia's energy sector more willing to accept tighter
policies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, rather than engaging in a tussle
with other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia over oil market
share, analysts say.
OPEC+, of which Russia is a member, has been reducing oil output to the
tune of 7.7 million barrels per day, or over 8.5% of global consumption,
in order to help the sluggish oil market.
"I think that the tax changes in oil industry were worked out while
taking into account the OPEC+ deal and its influence on the output of
the Russian companies," said Karen Kostanyan of Bank of America Merrill
Lynch.
The tax reforms are complex and vary from region and the types of oil
pumped. Crucially, they scrap some tax breaks given to output from older
oil fields and on highly viscous oil, used for production of a wide
range of oil products.
Renaissance Capital estimated that in total, the finance ministry plans
to source 6 trillion roubles ($78 billion) in tax revenues from the oil
and gas sector in 2021, or 32% of its total 2021 budget revenues under a
Urals oil price assumption of $45.3 per barrel.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said last month that the
taxation and the way Russia sticks to the OPEC+ deal are in "different
areas".
But the financial incentive to pump less could make for smoother
discussions with Russia's energy giants over continuing to keep a lid on
production to support the market, analysts say.
OPEC+ was planning to start raising output in January but concerns a
second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will hobble demand could see that
plan jettisoned.
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Full moon rises over the Gazprom Neft's oil refinery in Omsk, Russia
February 10, 2020. REUTERS/Alexey Malgavko/File Photo
Last week, Putin did not rule out extending oil cuts if market conditions
warranted.
While Putin is the ultimate decision maker in the country, including in the oil
industry, Novak has had to hold regular meetings with oil majors such as Rosneft
<ROSN.MM> and Lukoil <LKOH.MM> to agree joint action before any significant
deals can be done with OPEC.
Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, has long opposed output cuts in tandem with
OPEC but has been overruled by the president.
Rosneft and Lukoil did not respond to a request for comment.
Russia's finance ministry told Reuters that the tax changes "should not result
in oil output cuts long-term, provided that the companies continue investments".
Russia has also worked out a plan to build unfinished wells to make them
operational and restore production quickly once the OPEC+ deal expires after
April 2022.
Mid-sized oil producer Tatneft <TATN.MM> said last week that it doesn't plan to
start output at new highly viscous oil fields due to the new tax regime.
The changes affect companies such as Tatneft, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft <SIBN.MM>
the most because they produce such heavy crude oil.
Rosneft, on the other hand, managed to secure some tax breaks by promising the
state more revenues in exchange for less taxes.
Artem Frolov, vice-president at Moody's, believes the changes will ultimately
mean only a moderate earnings hit for the oil majors.
"These changes are unlikely to impact the position of energy ministry, which
represents Russia at the (OPEC) talks," he said.
($1 = 77.0100 roubles)
(Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin and Olesya Astakhova; additional reporting by
Darya Korsunskaya; editing by Carmel Crimmins)
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