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 Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of
its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that
poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.
"I reckon the spread of the coronavirus is having many people
worried about getting pregnant, giving births and rearing babies,"
Tetsushi Sakamoto, minister in charge of responses to Japan's
declining birthrates, told a news conference on Friday.
Recently published official data showed the number of notified
pregnancies in the three months to July fell 11.4% from a year
earlier, while the number of marriages over the same period dropped
36.9%. The sharp decline in marriages matters because the majority
of babies in Japan are born in wedlock.
"This is very serious because negative effects could stay on, with
the economic downturn leading to fewer marriages, and then to fewer
births," said Hideo Kumano, executive chief economist at Dai-ichi
Life Research Institute.
The pandemic has exacerbated a preexisting downward trend in the
birthrate, which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a "national
crisis." The number of births in 2019 was down 5.8% to around
865,000, the lowest annual figure ever.
The Japan Pediatric Association has warned the falling birthrate
could be expedited by ten years because of the pandemic, a trend
that could not only wipe out pediatric medicine but have far
reaching effects.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast global economic growth
of 5.2% in 2021, but expects Japan's growth to be 2.3%. Kumano said
depopulation was the major factor in the differing outlooks.
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A recent survey by the Nikkei newspaper showed that the majority of 22
economists polled expect that the Japanese economy will not come back to
pre-pandemic levels before 2024, indicating a prolonged headwind against getting
married.
Policymakers are scrambling to address the crisis, covering fertility treatment
with health insurance and doubling the upper limit of a one-off government
allowance for newlyweds to 600,000 yen ($5,726).
"There are various predictions on what will happen if the number of births keeps
falling, but one thing is certain. Current systems, including the social
security system, will no longer be functional," Masaji Matsuyama, former
minister overseeing the issue of declining births, told Reuters.
"It will be a crisis in which the very existence of the nation as we know it is
at stake."
($1 = 104.7900 yen)
(This story corrects to remove extraneous words in paragraph 9)
(Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka; editing by Jane Wardell)
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