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 Moderna's vaccine candidate - mRNA-1273 - is nearing the finish line
in its push to enroll 30,000 individuals in a late-stage trial of a
novel coronavirus vaccine. But the company may be able to declare
victory early if it is able to show that people who got the vaccine
fared much better in its trial that people who didn't.
Vaccines must demonstrate they are at least 50% moreeffective than a
placebo to be considered for approval. To provethat, government
officials have said, at least 150 COVID-19infections must be
recorded among trial participants with atleast twice as many
occurring among the placebo group.
If a vaccine is especially effective, companies could havetheir
answer sooner.
An independent safety board will take a first look at Moderna's data
as soon as a total of 53 people in the trial become infected with
COVID-19. Moderna is projecting the interim analysis will occur in
November, but it could come as early as October.
If most of the people who got sick got the placebo shot, that would
indicate the vaccine was protecting those inoculated and could be
enough evidence to seek U.S. regulatory approval for Emergency Use
Authorization(EUA).
"If the interim readout is deemed by the independent safety
committee as positive with 70 or 80 or 90% efficacy, we will indeed
consider approval," Stephane Bancel, Moderna's chief executive
officer, said in a telephone interview.
"At such a level of efficacy, if we get there, we can protect a lot
of lives in the people at the highest risk, and so, we will consider
filing for an EUA for a very limited population," Bancel said.
He said the FDA will determine whether the benefit of the vaccine to
a small group of high-risk individuals outweighs the risk of not
having a full readout of safety data from all 30,000 study
participants.
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The two groups of high-risk individuals who might be covered in such an EUA
would be healthcare workers and the elderly, Bancel said.
Bancel said the company wants to gather more data on the safety of the vaccine
in the study population over a period of several months before seeking full FDA
approval.
Moderna released its study protocol on Thursday, making public details on how
its vaccine will be evaluated. If the vaccine does not reach the efficacy mark
after 53 cases, the data safety and monitoring board will take another interim
look at the data after 106 cases, and a final look after 151 people in the trial
become infected with the virus.
Public health officials have said that approving a vaccine for widespread use
based on a small number of cases would not offer enough safety information to
show how the vaccine would perform.
Moderna, which has never brought a vaccine to market, hasreceived nearly $1
billion from the U.S. government under itsOperation Warp Speed program. It has
also struck a $1.5 billionsupply agreement with the United States.
In a presentation to investors on Tuesday, Pfizer Inc said the company has
enrolled more than 29,000 people in its 44,000-volunteer trial to test an
experimental COVID-19 vaccine the company is developing with German partner
BioNTech.
Pfizer expects to have enough data to show whether the vaccine works by the end
of October.
(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen; editing by Peter Henderson and Cynthia Osterman)
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