Biden or Trump, no guarantee of a post-Brexit U.S.-UK
trade deal
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[September 18, 2020] By
Andrea Shalal and David Lawder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. presidential
candidate Joe Biden's recent warning that Britain must honor Northern
Ireland's 1998 peace agreement to secure a U.S. trade deal adds new
complexity to already tough trade talks between the United States and
the U.K.
"We can't allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern
Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit," Biden wrote on Twitter on
Wednesday, referring to the deal that ended three decades of sectarian
violence in Northern Ireland and created a shared regional government.
Biden was echoing Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's warning last
week that any move by Britain to erect physical customs borders between
British-ruled Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland meant "no chance"
for a U.S.-UK trade deal.
His warning comes as U.S. negotiators in the Trump administration wrap
up a fourth round of trade talks with their British counterparts in
Washington this week. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday
the talks could "reach a successful conclusion before too long."
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No matter how they end, U.S. law gives Congress authority over trade
policy. President Donald Trump has sometimes sidestepped that authority
on trade issues, but U.S. and UK officials have said they are aiming for
a comprehensive agreement that would need Congress's approval.
The U.S. election in November is expected to leave the House in
Democratic hands, giving extra weight to Pelosi's words.
Both the U.S. and U.K. have other hurdles to clear as well, trade
experts say.
"Removing the Good Friday agreement is a non-starter, but there are five
or six other potentially really difficult issues that the two countries
are still far apart on," said Harry Broadman, managing director with the
Berkeley Research Group and a former senior U.S. trade official,
including agriculture, the British health system and Britain's proposed
digital services tax.
NON-NEGOTIABLE
Asked about the Trump administration's view Thursday, U.S. Trade
Representative Robert Lighthizer's office pointed to his June testimony
to Congress, where he said there is no chance Congress would pass a
trade deal if Britain put up borders in Ireland, violating the Good
Friday agreement.
"I've made that quite clear. The chairman [of the committee] has made it
quite clear to me. The president agrees this is not something on which
we're going to have a negotiation," he said.
The Good Friday agreement is in jeopardy, some diplomats say, because of
new legislation proposed by British prime minister Boris Johnson.
British trade officials have repeatedly said they are seeking a
comprehensive trade deal and are not seeking to rush into an agreement
before the U.S. election, nor waiting to see who wins at the polls in
November.
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![](../images/091820pics/busine35.jpg)
Democratic U.S.
presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks to
reporters before boarding his campaign plane in Scranton,
Pennsylvania, U.S. September 17, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
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U.S. and British trade negotiators were expected to discuss one of the thorniest
issues between the two countries in the current round of trade talks - increased
access for agricultural products.
British trade minister Liz Truss has pledged to drive a "hard bargain" with the
United States, vowing that Britain would not diminish its food safety standards
to import American products such as chlorine-treated poultry and genetically
modified crops.
Britain wants access for lamb and beef exports to the United States.
Autos are the largest source of trade between the two economies, and another
point of friction. Britain maintains a 10% tariff on any U.S. imports, four
times the U.S. tariff on British cars. An outstanding threat by Trump to impose
25% tariffs on imported vehicles makes negotiating down the U.K. rate unlikely,
trade experts say.
Pompeo, speaking Wednesday at a news conference with UK Foreign Secretary
Dominic Raab, said he trusted Britain to find a solution.
"We know the complexity of the situation," Pompeo said. "In the end, this will
be a set of decisions with respect to this that the United Kingdom makes and (I)
have great confidence that they will get this right in a way that treats
everyone fairly and gets a good outcome."
Raab told CNN on Thursday that the 1998 agreement is "not in jeopardy."
"There is not going to be any hard border, certainly not applied by the UK,"
Raab said, adding that if the EU made a similar commitment, "it would also help
the negotiations."
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a non-resident senior fellow Peterson Institute for
International Economics, said Biden's warning suggests that perhaps he is just
not that interested in a deal.
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"The phrasing of not wanting northern Irish peace to be a victim of Brexit,
that's a really forceful intervention by a potential future American president -
basically disavowing the signature project that defines the current British
government. It's difficult to imagine that wording is not reflective of Biden's
overall interest in pursuing this deal."
Trump has developed close ties to Johnson, but Biden's warning suggests he may
not do the same, he said.
"This signals to me that the 'special relationship' between a Biden
administration and Boris Johnson's government, especially in a no-deal Brexit,
is not going to be very special."
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal And David Lawder; Editing by Heather Timmons and
Daniel Wallis)
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